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To: Mitchell Jones who wrote (15006)	9/14/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

This article is very interesting. i dont however see this scenario where China collapses? All indications are that China is growing and will continue to do so for the near future. It is in fact the only truly non-recessionary country in the Region. I also feel that Japan and Korea will always be dependant on US millitary pertection, and wont be so quick to abandon that ubrella

To: Mitchell Jones who wrote (15006)	9/14/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 152472

Mitchell, I read that article on the Asian Forum this morning and have to concurr that it is one of the best article on the subject. I intend to read it again. Japan is a bigger time bomb than Russia, SA, interngate combined. In the immediate future, I suspect that the warring political parties will agree on some bail out plan for the banks. This may give the false signal that the bottom is here. However, the key issue would be sufficient funding. About the same time, the underfunding of pension plan may surface. Postal savings is also a mystery at this time. Where is this money reinvested on behalf of the depositors? If they are all in US treasuries, Japan may be in much better shape than we think. On the other hand, if it is all in Japan based instruments, such as JGBs, Japanese stocks, they may be in a lot worse shape. Still chicken little Ramsey