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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1010)	9/14/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: nelli	Respond to of 15132

Acampora Interview 9/13/98 Dow Jones Newswires -- September 14, 1998 POINT OF VIEW: Ralph Acampora, The Reluctant Guru By MARK YOST Dow Jones Newswires RICHMOND, Va. -- "I never wanted to be a guru," says Prudential Securities Inc.'s director of technical research, Ralph Acampora. "But somehow the media had crowned me the king of the bull market and Goldman Sachs & Co. strategist) Abby Joseph Cohen the queen." Society of Certified Financial Analysts, the market guru, er, technician swore that his punditry days are over. But not before accepting responsibility for "at least 100 points" of a 300-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average following an Aug. 4 appearance on CNBC. Now let's see if we have this straight, Ralph. You claim you never wanted to be a guru, but are taking partial credit for a major market drop. Isn't that a little like Bill Clinton telling a grand jury he didn't have "sexual relations" with Monica Lewinsky and then going on national television to seek forgiveness for an "inappropriate" relationship with her? Regardless, nonpundit Acampora said that he "made the hard call" by going on CNBC and publicly trading in his bull horns for a bearskin. As evidence of his courage under fire he noted a letter from famed investor A. Gary Shilling, commending him for his bravery to do what others wouldn't. Indeed, in Acampora's eyes it was the media that blew his comments out of proportion and caused the lion's share of the Aug. 4 market drop. "I called it a cyclical bear, not secular," Acampora said. "But somehow that got lost in the translation." Furthermore, he equated his role to that of a campus police officer closing down an out-of-control fraternity party. And for it, he said, he was lambasted by an increasingly powerful business media. "This media thing is getting bigger," Acampora said. "It started with Greenspan and his comment about 'irrational exuberance.' The media and the Congress said, 'Shut that jerk up.' And the public doesn't want to hear this because it impacts their retirement money." It has been five weeks since Prudential's Acampora's last television appearance. For most of Thursday night he stuck to his I'm-not-a-guru-anymore mantra. "We're probing for a bottom," he said when pressed to interpret Thursday's 249-point drop in the Dow industrials. "We're in the wait-and-see period." What about his previous forecast of 7400 as the floor? "I'm not going to answer that question," Acampora said. "I'm trying to make a case that maybe 7400 was the low. That would be perfect. But honestly, I don't have a number." With the market trading wildly over the past few days - Friday the DJIA bounced back nearly 180 points to close at 7795 - he said it's looking more and more like the market has found its bottom and is trying to settle "But I'm not impressed yet," Acampora said, slipping easily back into his forecaster's shoes. "If we take out 7400, the best thing you can do is look for support levels at 7000 and 6400." Regardless of what happens, Acampora said the market has accomplished a lot. "We're washing out the excess," he said. "And if this is a secular trending bull market that's still alive, we're going to 10,000." His one solid suggestion was for investors to look at sectors rather than indexes. But for the most part, he's still swearing off major punditry. "I don't want to go on television," he said. "I'm not going to go out and clarion call anything." Well, almost anything. "If the market goes below 7400, I think I have an obligation to go on TV and explain it," he said. But don't think you'll only see Acampora's familiar face again if the market dips below 7400. His last on-the-record comment before joining Richmond's financial analysts for a few cocktails was: "I know what I want to see, I haven't seen it yet. When I know, I'll tell you." Indeed, old habits die hard. -By Mark Yost; 804-698-7385

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1010)	9/14/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa: Post 1011 provided some of the interview with Ralphie. It indicates that the interview was made Sunday - 13 Sept. 1998. Thought the following were the best parts of the commentary: "..Now let's see if we have this straight, Ralph. You claim you never wanted to be a guru, but are taking partial credit for a major market drop. Isn't that a little like Bill Clinton telling a grand jury he didn't have "sexual relations" with Monica Lewinsky and then going on national television to seek forgiveness for an "inappropriate" relationship with her?..." And also: " '..His last on-the-record comment before joining Richmond's financial analysts for a few cocktails was: "I know what I want to see, I haven't seen it yet. When I know, I'll tell you.' Indeed, old habits die hard." Slick Willy might have added the following - "sooner rather than later ....more rather than less"....

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1010)	9/14/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Mr. Flip Flop said: "We're probing for a bottom," he said when pressed to interpret Thursday's 249-point drop in the Dow industrials. "We're in the wait-and-see period." What about his previous forecast of 7400 as the floor? "I'm not going to answer that question," Acampora said. "I'm trying to make a case that maybe 7400 was the low. That would be perfect. But honestly, I don't have a number." It doesn't sound like he issued the buy signal yet. Will he tell us the cyclical bear is over before or after the market gets above 8400, which is about where it was when he called bear? Best wishes, I2