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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27848)	9/14/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, re the "Trin Alert", I show the 4 days last week totalling 3.44 according to Barron's and, today, I get .53 from Yahoo and .54 from Briefing.com. I'd say it's not just "close enough", it's there. BTW, this has turned out to be a fairly reliable short-term indicator this year, hasn't it? All through the decline from the July highs, I didn't see it hit 6.00 until 8/31. On the last sell, however, it was about 3 weeks early. By my records, it last went below 4.0 on June 23 and 24. Hopefully it's not that early this time - we were still in a bull market in June after all. Regards, Bob

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27848)	9/14/1998 10:06:00 PM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

<<Carl Hittle and I've been discussing a scenario where the move up from the bottom on 9/1 into the high on 9/2 was Wave A. Then we proceeded into a complex B with a of B (down) completing on 9/4's low, then b of B (up) completing on 9/8's high, then c of B (down) completing on 9/11's low, finishing up the B wave. Then from 9/11's low, we began wave C up, which would be the bookend to the 9/1-9/2 rally. With this 9/1-9/2 rally only taking a day and a half, and running 80 pts, that would have had us looking for the end of this C wave this afternoon in the 1045-1050 area on the Dec. S&P (1035 -1040 SPX). >> Why not a simple A-B-C-D-E instead of a complex ABC ? Is there a EWT rule that goes against what looks more obvious?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27848)	9/15/1998 6:18:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

Re: Bradley To: +lisa (52579 ) From: +Diana Choi Tuesday, Sep 15 1998 2:57AM ET Reply # of 52628 The last Favors newsletter has the Bradley calling for a low near September 21 plus or minus 2 days, then a rally into September 28 (plus or minus 2 days). diana

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27848)	9/15/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

David, >>You still got your bear claws dug in deep to this Bull, or did you break a nail? <g> Both correct. I was astounded by the market action on Friday. Also frustrated because the picture is so clear now (global economic turmoil, signs of deterioration in the US economy) and I can't understand who could come with such a buying frenzy and why. Don't they get it? The growth that was promised for the second half of the year, and was used to explain the lofty prices of stocks a few months ago will not happen, looking ahead for '99 even Goldman Sachs cut their estimated GDP growth in half. Don't they understand? Any future rate cut (IMO there would be many rate cuts in the next two years) will only ease up the pain of contraction, and couldn't stop it from happening. Well, maybe it was short covering, maybe a reaction to an oversold situation, but I still don't get it. Monday was not that surprising to me, since - 1. The market couldn't break the upper parallel in the 1st try, this would be to big and strong move even for the recent volatile market, but once it started positive in the morning, it has crossed to the upper half of the parallelogram, and was obliged to check the upper line again. 2. The recent money flow cannot support the market at such levels IMO. 3. We came close enough to the 200 dma (lower 1060s on the SPX) which constitute the last line of defense for the bears. Also the 520 line on the OEX, which was the most important support till it gave way (and see what happened when it did) is now the most important resistance. 4. The rounding top on Monday suggested that the rally has exhausted itself. >>Lower wave action would not be totally confirmed until we break that rising channel/parallelogram line that we've discussed, which I have at 977 as of market close. I agree. >>That'd be too much to wait through, however, for an expiration week option play. Exactly my thoughts. >>What would you use as a trade igniter? The only thing I could think of was the rate of decline. If it is indeed a beginning of a wave that would later break the lower support line, then it's gonna be a pretty strong wave. Yesterday's afternoon didn't have much punch, but could be a start of something. For this something to be a new down wave, the decline has to be much steeper. First it would have cross decisively to the lower half of the parallelogram (mid way around SPX 1013-1018 today) and maybe correct back to it. If the market can accomplish this task before money time (15:00) we could see a big sell off in the last hour. We are still far off from this to happen, but if we later break the lower line I see NO SUPPORTS under it. Obviously the market could correct back to the line after it's been broken, but the pattern I look for is something like the action on 8/27 and 8/28 - Arrival to the support line and a small rebound on the same day, decisive break on the next day and sideways motion for the rest of the day, and a meltdown on te next day. IMO, breaking the lower line will also have great psychological impact on the pros and semi pros, and may also shake the public. The pros and semi pros will finally accept the fact that we're in a severe bear market, and the public could get frightened at last. ATG

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27848)	9/15/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

David, Re :MAs This may be hindsight, and maybe playing with the charts to much, but the best fit Elliotte reading I found just now is looking at the 5 days SMA, which is the only MA that gives a smooth 5 waves read in the 1st leg down from the top, on which we all agree. Although this one doesn't show the abc of the 2 - it shows only a one legged correction- it did change its direction from up to down on the first day of decline (8/25, which ended up, but from a much higher intraday top). The 5 dma also bottomed at the bottom of the 1st wave, on 8/14, and its netx bottom was on 4/9 (supporting your read of a truncated 5, and the end of the 3 of 1) and not 9/1. In the last 5 days it showed a two legged correction, and a close today under SPX 1023.5 will turn it down again. To continue down tomorrow it would need the average close of today and tomorrow to be under SPX 1014.8 . 3-13 dma- This one is so far the most bullish. Short of a crash today (SPX under 975), the 3 is going to cross over the 13 today, they way it did after the big 1 was over, and will confirm (what the parallelogram already showed for the short term) that short to medium term trend is up, and would probably stay over the 13 dma for at least two more days, unless we break down from the parallelogram first. 21 dsma- We did not have a close over the 21 dma since 7/22. Well, we did have one. On 8/25, when the market reversed, the SPX closed 2.5 points higher then the 21 dsma, and maybe this marked the end of that correction. That was the only day the SPX even traded over the 21 dma. Yesterday the SPX touched the 21 dma at that day's high, and reversed to close under it. A signal? The 21 dma was headed down continuosly since it turned on 7/24. For it to turn back up we'll need a close over 1060 today (naahh), or over 1080 in the next 7 trading days (ahm). This appears to be highly unlikely, so one must assume that for the next week, the medium term trend is still down. Conclusion: A close over 1024 is bullish. A trade under 1015 today could indicate that something has begun, but only a close under 1004 will take us under the 13 dma again, and may suggest a new down leg. The weaker the market today, the more we should short it. Under 1015- One may try Under 1004- One may increase Under 980 - Go for it. ATG