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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (1154)	9/14/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: David Howe	Respond to of 10280

OK, my earlier post was a bit moronic. I'll post a few of my reasons for being bullish on SEPR to back up my position. I just went through this drill on the Yahoo board so these are just cut and pastes. Correct any errors that you find. ------------ Within the next month SEPR should file the NDA for (S)-fluoxetine (Prozac-migraine). That will certainly increase the pressure on Lilly to make a deal with SEPR. Either of these events would be quite favorable for the stock. The NDA filing is inevitable, the deal with Lilly is likely. Then there's (R)-fluoxetine (Prozac-depression) with a current market of $2.6 billion. Certain to be included in any deal with Lilly. Levalbuteral sales will start shortly. SEPR will have a press release for the roll-out of their latest product. Most stocks respond favorably to the news that a company has begun sales of a drug that is targeting a $1.4 billion market. In the near future they will release the results for (S)-oxybutynin (Ditropan). All we know at this point is that no patients have dropped out due to dry mouth (the common complaint for the parent drug). We should also see results for (R,R)-formoterol (Foradil/Atock) trials in the next quarter. There are 14 other drugs in the pipeline that will reach various milestones as they each move forward. I'm really only scratching the surface here. Dave

To: David Howe who wrote (1154)	9/14/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: David Howe	Respond to of 10280

The thing that is so incredible about SEPR is that they can come up with some incredible news totally out of the blue. They can announce a multi-billion dollar deal with a major pharmaceutical for a tremendous product that we didn't even know they had in there basket of potential products. ie. see below release from last month. This is a huge deal with not only a terrific royalty but an agreement for Janssen to pay for all of the development and marketing expenses. This is a deal that will bring at least $100,000,000 in annual earnings (not sales but earnings) to SEPR without them paying for anything. That's $3.00 per share just from this one product. Dave MARLBOROUGH, Mass., July 21, 1998 -- Sepracor Inc. (Nasdaq: SEPR) today announced a licensing agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica, N.V., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), relating to (+) norcisapride, an isomer of the active metabolite of Propulsid ƒ (cisapride). Propulsid, marketed by Janssen Pharmaceutica, is indicated for the symptomatic treatment of patients with nocturnal heartburn due to gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). In 1997, worldwide sales of Propulsid exceeded $1 billion for the first time. "We are very pleased to be collaborating with Janssen on another ICE compound, which may provide a platform to expand the Propulsid franchise. The isomer of norcisapride has the potential for reduced side effects, increased efficacy and less frequent dosing, and the opportunity for additional indications such as emesis, irritable bowel syndrome, and bulimia," said Timothy J. Barberich, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sepracor Inc. Under the terms of the agreement, Sepracor has exclusively licensed to Janssen all of Sepracor's worldwide rights to develop and market norcisapride enantiomers. Janssen will pay Sepracor royalties on product sales beginning upon launch and royalties will escalate upon achievement of sales volume milestones. Under certain circumstances, Sepracor may co-promote the product in the pediatric market. "This agreement with Janssen further validates Sepracor's ICE strategy as a unique opportunity to potentially improve and extend the life cycle of major pharmaceutical franchises," said David S. Barlow, President of Pharmaceuticals at Sepracor.

To: David Howe who wrote (1154)	9/14/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

The following post was in response to a short on the Yahoo board. There are a few shorts over there and they all apparently have shorted SEPR because it has "gone up and must come down". None of them have a clue. I'm not saying that there isn't a chance that SEPR's stock price could fall a little, what I am saying is that none of the shorts on Yahoo have a clue...period. ------------- You are short a stock and you ask the questions that you ask? A bit strange I'd say. The questions you ask have answers that are in black and white if you just look. There are risks in investing in companies like SEPR, but, they are not the risks that you mention in your post. << How soon will can they turn a profit? How much profit can they turn? >> The average estimate for 2001 earnings are for $6 per share. Go with a PE of 30 and you get a stock price of 180. Earnings for 2002 and 2003 are much higher. These earnings projections are based on deals that SEPR has in hand at this time. They don't include the multitude of deals that SEPR will announce between now and then. << At some point they are going to be forced to start borrowing, especially in this market once the stock price falls substantially. >> Why borrow? SEPR has $250 million in cash. They have large pharmas like Jannsen agreeing to pay all expenses required to bring the drugs to market. They have strong royalty contracts. They have positive cash flow locked in. Any surplus funds will go towards R&D. << Aren't owners tempted to take profits? >> Apparently not. Check out the SEC filings. Non of the SEPR management has been selling their shares. In a recent conference call they were asked how they would protect against a buyout. They said that they would not be opposed to a buyout (they are shareholders and would profit from a buyout). They did say that they hoped it happened later rather than sooner because the company "is worth considerably more than it's current value". It was at 54 at the time. The conference call was worth a listen. Someone invested in SEPR (short or long) should have listened to it. If one pharma bids for SEPR the others could counter with higher bids. No pharma is going to want it's competitor to suddenly have all of SEPR's pipeline added to it's own pipeline. SEPR's pipeline is larger than Pfizer's current pipeline. We are not talking about a flash in the pan here. SEPR is a monster in the making. Dave

To: David Howe who wrote (1154)	9/14/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Hi David, No, I like SEPR. I was just reacting to the tone of your posting, which might be quite timely. I used to be on Wall Street and there is a careful line that needs to be observed when speaking kindly about a stock and I would not want to see you or anyone else getting into trouble. There are some real flakes on some threads and the regulators are beginning to track them down. The way they operate, they tend to nail a lot of unwitting suspects along the way. If you are speaking from some TA evaluations - say so and stay clear of trouble. Nothing more than that intended. Good night. Floyd