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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (32589)	9/16/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Skeets, We have to remember that Samsung, Hyundai and Lucky Goldstar are huge, diversified companies. They have the spending power, albeit through debt or promises, to keep on playing for years. If they want to. So far, they have shown no sign that they are willing to give up on DRAM. If fact, they are moving very quickly into next generation products. Helping them move into the next generation was the entire reason for the merger of the Hyundai and LGS chip units. We won't get a turn in DRAM until we get a turn in pc sales. And htat will be years. We will get a number of small turns in the meantime. Since 1995, the DRAM has shown faster than normal declines in prices. However, we have had several bounces during that period. That's normal. It just gives us a chance to reload on MU puts. Carl Johnson at Infrastructure on Techweb, Market Mavens, stated that the new 64 Mbit capacity basically doubles Mbits in the pipeline. Until we see Mbit demand growing at 100 pct. or more, per year, we've got a problem. And we won't see that with sub-$1000 boxes leading the sales parade. This DRAM scam never really picked up steam the way the other two did this cycle. Though some of the price moves were fairly impressive, they were concentrated on one chip, 16 Mbit PC 100. And, as they always do, the chippies add capacity on that chip right before it becomes obsolete. This downturn will last long enough for MU to pay in blood for the TXN "gift." MB