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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52626)	9/15/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- Yesterday we closed about 95 DOW points off the intraday highs, which is approximately 39% off the highs. This is the first signal implying a reversal to the downside. The average investor will just remeber that the DOW was up 149 points. My SHORT-TERM technicals are now at 80 which is right on the OVERBOUGHT LINE, and it was higher on a intraday basis before the 95 point decline. Just on a mathematical calculation - the potential downside, specificly per my short-term technicals is about 800-1000 points and with a time duration of 4-6 days. That is not to say that I feel the market will drop that much at this time, but just to state downside potential. I must say that I am getting a bit nervous on a technical basis, since I have noticed a pattern similar to the STAIR-STEP at 9000 and 8600 just before both of them dropped hard to the next lower STAIR-STEP. This pattern is withing the oscillations of my short-term technicals and not clearly indicated in price movement. The probability is that today should be flat to down, and could be down hard. There is also a chance that we could retest yesterdays highs intraday only, but that probability is less likely. If today is relatively flat (plus or minus 50 points) at the close, that would be a confirmation signal of the reversal. Of course if we close negative that would be an even stronger confirmation. Lets say that I am a bit nervous about this forthcoming downtrend, if we retest 7500. What I mean is that if we get that low to retest 7500, the chances have increased that 7500 could fail - but we have to get that low first. Hope I made sense. Seeya