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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (869)	9/15/1998 8:15:00 PM
From: jwk	Respond to of 1361

I had a lengthy and informative conversation yesterday with someone who is directly involved with keeping I-70 open through Colorado. It's a major job in the winter under the best of circumstances. Often it is closed for hours or even days at a time because of problems at various choke points. He had become very aware of y2k issues facing him. What was getting to him was the fact that the more he pursued fixes, the more problems and glithces he turned up. A main concern falls under the general concept of cascading glitches. He is only to well aware of how tenuous the supply and support line is to keep everything up and running. When he started factoring in potential (likely) y2k glitches..... well, he wasn't happy about the prospects of having I-70 open if we have a big snow year. Options: several hundred mile detour through Wyoming (which is rumored to have its own winter issues) or New Mexico. Will trucks and traffick move east -west in jan. 2000? Sure. But there is a worrisome likelyhood that the movement may be impeded by y2k glitches. So stuff arrives late.... some shops shut down for a while or cut back on hours. People make less, fall a bit more behind on bills, get a bit more tense and frustrated...... no problem, send them over to BW's place to get a pep talk on how all their fear, frustration, and anger is just a by-product of unreasonable hype. oh yeah, then there was this bit about transportation out of the Senate yesterday (thought they were all supposed to be focused on Bill's crotch like the rest of the country) September 14, 1998 Congress warned late yesterday that the U.S. transportation industry is likely to suffer major interruptions come the Year 2000, or at least so says Bob Bennett the senator from Utah and chair of hte Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. The Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, heard testimony from Transportation Department (DOT) and Federal Aviation Administration officials as well as executives from American Airlines, Delta Airlines, and representatives from major metro public transportation services. According to one report, a DOT official told the committee that the United States might ban U.S. airlines from flying to and from countries that can't prove their air traffic control systems are free of the Year 2000 computer bug. The committee queried a total of 32 airlines, airports, railroads, maritime shippers, trucking companies, and metropolitan transit authorities. However, only 16 responded to the committee's requests. "We made this survey so simple that I can only conclude that those who didn't respond are either unaware of the severity of the problem or are embarrassed over their lack of progress," Bennett said. The Senate hearing explored safety and convenience concerns for the traveler and commuter, as well as the potentially paralyzing effect the millennium bug could have on businesses that are reliant on "just-in-time" inventories and prompt transportation of manufactured goods. "With the hard part yet to come--testing and implementation--I am forced to conclude that there may be significant interruptions in the transportation industry," Bennett said.

To: SOROS who wrote (869)	9/18/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: jwk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1361

The following article about City Utilities in Springfield, MO is exactly the type of reasoned and responsible approach I like to see. ============= City Utilities plans to shut down power plant because of Y2K ÿÿÿ SPRINGFIELD On October 15, 1998, City Utilities plans to shutdown the Southwest Power Plant. The downtime should last for about two weeks, as workers scour the station for possible Y2K problems. ÿÿÿÿ "Y2K" is shorthand for the Year 2000 computer bug. When the calendar rolls over to 2000, some computers won't be able to tell the difference between 2000 and 1900. That's because they use just two digits to identify the year, so 1994 is "94" and 2000 is "00." ÿÿÿÿ Identifying a Y2K problem is relatively easy in personal and main frame computers. It's much harder in embedded systems. ÿÿÿÿ Embedded systems are, in essence, miniature computers. They hold pre-programmed instructions that tell an appliance or system what to do. Sometimes these systems need to know what time it is. If the chips have a Y2K problem, they might lose the correct time, causing a system to malfunction or shutdown. ÿÿÿÿ The Southwest Power Plant - and indeed the country's entire electrical infrastructure - is full of embedded chips. Finding them all and figuring out if they have a Y2K problem has become a priority for City Utilities. ÿÿÿÿ "We've identified about 215 different systems that may have a Y2K problem," says Gary Stueve, the Southwest Power Plant's Electrical Maintenance Supervisor. "Embedded in there somewhere is a little clock that's looking at the calendar date. That's the one you've got to be concerned about." ÿÿÿÿ "Concerned" is an understatement. The theories and predictions circulating through out the country are downright scary. One scenario says that the nation's entire power system will crash if only 15 percent of all power plants suffer a Y2K shutdown. It will, in effect, be like a row of dominos. As one plant goes down, the resulting power loss will cause other plants to make up the difference. Problem is, they won't be able to make up the difference and, in turn, will crash. ÿÿÿÿ Most reasonable people's basic question about embedded chips is why is it so hard to figure out if a chip has a Y2K problem. There are several reasons: ÿÿÿÿ1.) Estimates put the number of embedded chips in the world at between 30 billion and 50 billion. No one knows where all of them are. ÿÿÿÿ2.) Many embedded systems are manufactured in a way that might best be described as "haphazard." Suppose you have a system that keeps track of maintenance in an electrical transformer. This system will have lots of different chips, all made by different companies. Some of those companies are out of business so there's no way to track down the specifications for their chips. That leaves the question of whether there is an embedded clock in that chip. There probably isn't but it's hard to tell for sure, because . . . ÿÿÿÿ3.) Chips are often made to be used in all sorts of different things. Sometimes a chip keeps track of time even though the appliance using the chip doesn't need to know what time it is. A hypothetical example is that the same chip used in a clock radio can also be used in a stereo amplifier. When it's used in the clock radio, it keeps track of time. But when it's used in a stereo amplifier, there's no reason to keep track of the time. Then, the Y2K question that comes up is whether the chip still is keeping track of time, even though it's in the stereo amplifier, which doesn't care what time it is and isn't using the time-keeping function. If that chip has a Y2K problem, will it quit working when 2000 gets here? Will the amplifier continue to work? ÿÿÿÿ If reading these reasons gave you a headache, you're beginning to understand how the people at City Utilities feel. They think things will work when 2000 gets here but they just can't be sure. ÿÿÿÿ "You'll never get us to say that CU is 100 percent Y2K compliant," said Brenda Putman, the chairwoman of CU's Y2K task force. "This is a huge problem." ÿÿÿÿ Putman has spent the past two and a half years leading CU's Y2K efforts. She says CU plans to have all possible Y2K problems identified by the end of 1998. 1999 will be spent working out any problems. ÿÿÿÿ But even with all this effort, Putman says a lot of CU employees will be on call the evening of December 31, 1999, ready to come in, just in case systems start to crash. ÿÿÿÿ Shutting down the Southwest Power Plant is not an unusual occurrence. It's done on a regular basis for routine maintenance. But CU officials say this shutdown has just one purpose: looking for Y2K problems. Stueve says workers will check the entire plant for Y2K problems. Then all the clocks will be set ahead to the year 2000. The plant will then simulate a start-up. ÿÿÿÿ "We'll see what happens," said Stueve. ÿÿÿÿ Despite all of CU's efforts there is no way for CU officials to be sure that other electric utilities will be Y2K compliant. If another Midwest utility goes down on January 1, 2000, it could take CU down with it. ÿÿÿÿ To counter that possibility, CU has a contingency plan. Putman says, if it has to, CU will cut itself off from the nation's power system and try to generate electricity on its own. To that end, CU plans to have a stockpile of coal by the end of 1999 that is large enough to generate electricity for three months. It's a huge and expensive safety measure but it's one that CU feels it has to take. ÿÿÿÿFor more information about embedded chips and Y2K: ÿÿÿÿ<Picture: Internet Site>ÿInstitution of Electrical Engineers ÿÿÿÿ<Picture: Internet Site>ÿElectric Utilities and the Year 2000 ÿÿÿÿ<Picture: Internet Site>ÿYear 2000 Best Practices Handbook ÿÿÿÿ<Picture: Internet Site>ÿYear 2000 and theComputer ÿÿÿÿ