Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (17774)	9/15/1998 8:11:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70798

I got into CIEN too (shares and calls). Looking for the dcb for the options, but will hold the shares for any potential buyout. Haven't determined a support level to put in a stop loss. Any ideas? Tom

To: j g cordes who wrote (17774)	9/22/1998 10:02:00 AM
From: IA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70798

Jim or anyone, If you have a minute, I was wondering if you could give me your TA read on WIND. Thanks. Inder

To: j g cordes who wrote (17774)	10/3/1998 6:23:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 70798

Saturday, October 3, 1998 Street cited for Nortel slide CEO blames over-reaction for stock's 20% descent Investors drop telecom stocks on slowdown fear By KEITH DAMSELL Technology Reporter The Financial Post The investment community's "emotional" over-reaction to an unexpected downturn in sales at Northern Telecom Ltd. is to blame for the recent 20% slide in its stock, chief executive John Roth said Friday. "The Street went into chaos ... they just absolutely went into panic mode," said Roth of the dramatic selloff that wiped $12.60 off the value of Nortel shares (NTL/TSE) on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Friday, the stock fell another 50¢ to close at $48, off about 50% from its May 22 record close of $98.85. Last week's share price tumble on news of slumping revenue was "largely an emotional reaction rather than a logical, directed reaction," Roth said. "The fundamentals of Nortel are solid ... We had a very different view on the severity of the news than the analysts." At an annual meeting with industry watchers in New York Tuesday, Nortel put an optimistic spin on its big move into data networking through the US$6.7-billion purchase of Bay Networks Inc. in August. Since the deal was announced in June, jittery investors have abandoned Nortel and many analysts were looking for assurances the merger was on track. The integration of Nortel and Bay was proceeding better than expected and growth over the next three years is expected to beat the industry's 14% average, Roth said. Trouble began when chief financial officer Wes Scott took the stage. The company will meet earnings expectations for the remainder of this year, he said, partly as a result of cost-cutting measures, including a Sept. 14 plan to shed 3,500 employees. But declining sales in Asia, the strength of the US$ and consolidation of the telecommunications sector will slow the revenue growth. In the third and fourth quarters of this year, sales will grow in the low-teens, down from the Street's expected 18%. As recently as Sept. 1, Nortel had confirmed revenue growth in the mid to high teens for 1998. The revised sales forecast sent the shares plunging and the Toronto Stock Exchange went along for the ride. The Brampton, Ont.-based telecommunications equipment maker accounts for about 4.4% of the value of TSE 300 composite index. Its losses accounted for 59.10 points of the index's 254.98-point decline on Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately, analysts expect Nortel will have a difficult time regaining the market's confidence. "There are a lot of angry people walking around thinking their intelligence has been insulted," said analyst Rob MacLellan at Kearns Capital Ltd. There's increasing speculation the gaffe may lead to firings at the executive level. Nortel "will have to take out a sacrificial lamb and shoot it," said one Toronto analyst who asked not to be identified. . No senior management changes are in the works. Roth concedes, "We could have done a better job [handling the bad news]. We're looking at how we communicate. We need to improve." For now, Nortel is sticking with its 20% revenue forecast for 1999. The target is based on several assumptions, including continued low interest rates in the U.S. and a "settling down" of the world's financial markets by yearend, Roth said. About 45% of company revenue comes from outside North America. Analysts are less optimistic. There are strong indications a global recession has taken hold and Nortel "will not turn around until we have solid economic growth," said fund manager Duncan Stewart of Tera Capital Corp. of Toronto.

To: j g cordes who wrote (17774)	10/3/1998 6:25:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70798

On top of all this bad news, one can't even die in peace! <g> ******************************* Saturday, October 3, 1998 Loewen debt reduced to junk bond status By DREW HASSELBACK Vancouver Bureau The Financial Post Loewen Group Inc.'s credit rating is now junk bond status. Canadian Bond Rating Service lowered its rating Friday for the company's senior guaranteed notes to BB (high) from BBB (low). Ratings of BB (high) and below are generally considered non-investment or junk-bond grade. The Burnaby, B.C.-based funeral home chain and its chairman and chief executive Ray Loewen have been under the gun since August, when the company announced significantly reduced second-quarter earnings. Dominion Bond Rating Service responded by downgrading Loewen's senior notes to BB (high) with a stable trend from BBB (low) on Aug. 25. CBRS took a more cautious view then, putting Loewen on a creditwatch list with negative implications. CBRS analyst Don Povilaitis said red flags were raised by the disappointing second-quarter earnings. Loewen had profit of US$11.6 million (US13¢ a share) in the quarter ended June 30, down 56% from US$26.3 million (US38¢) the year before. "This was not typical of an industry where cash flows are quite predictable," he said. "When you come in with sharply lower earnings it's not always a reflection of death rates, but rather cost structure. And that's indeed what we have here." The company has had to curtail its aggressive acquisition strategy to deal with its cash flow and balance sheet problems. Its shares (lwn/tse) have plummeted from about $40 at the beginning of July to close Friday at $20, down 15¢. Recently Loewen hired New York-based Salomon Smith Barney to come up with ways to revive the share price. Povilaitis said the company is not likely to look to either equity or debt markets for short-term capital. It debt load 55% to 60% of capital is high for any industry, he said. "This is a reflection of their limited ability to grow now that their capital program has come to a virtual halt. Their sources of funding are severely restricted."