To: djane who wrote (8053 ) 9/15/1998 3:14:00 PM From: djane Respond to of 22640
CBS Marketwatch. The sky is falling Soros, Gramlich call for IMF repairscbs.marketwatch.com By Rex Nutting, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:12 PM ET Sep 15, 1998 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- It's gone from the Goldilocks economy to the Chicken Little economy. Billionaire financier George Soros's is the latest voice to warn that the sky is about to fall. "The global capitalist system ... is coming apart at the seams," he warned in an op-ed piece in The Wall Street Journal and in testimony before the House Banking Committee on Tuesday. Soros is arguing for radical reform of the International Monetary Fund and other multinational agencies whose response to the global crisis has been, in his words, "woefully inadequate." He called for establishment of a multinational credit insurance agency that could act like the Federal Reserve to stabilize markets and ensure liquidity. Soros has estimated his losses from the Russian meltdown at $2 billion, but he made his policy recommendations well before Russia got caught up in the Asian crisis. The Hungarian-born and New York-based Soros also has spent massively on philanthropy in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Same old medicine Soros isn't the only one warning of the dire consequences of inaction, but his may be one of the few respected voices saying that more of the same medicine won't work. The Washington economic establishment is trying to reassure the markets that, while the situation does demand immediate action, it's under control. President Clinton, who seemed almost happy to be discussing the global economic crisis after the week he'd had, spelled out six specific steps that need to be taken immediately in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Monday. (See Monday's Capitol Report.) The rest of his economic policy team is fanning out across the nation, sounding soothing but vigilant. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin address the Banking Committee at 1 p.m. Wednesday, while Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers will testify about Russia at a separate House hearing Thursday. Rate cut The markets -- preoccupied by the short run -- will examine Greenspan's testimony carefully for hints about a rate cut, which would be announced at the Sept. 29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Greenspan said on Sept. 4 that the Fed's major worry is no longer inflation but global recession. (See story.) Rubin's testimony will be combed for further hints that the strong-dollar policy has been replaced. A weak yen hurts domestic demand in Japan. Rubin will also be asked probing questions about his ideas for long-term solutions. Fed officials are speaking out as well. "The world capital system clearly is in need of repair," said Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich in a speech Tuesday at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. He rejected suggestions that other countries ought to follow Malaysia's example in imposing strict currency controls or that a Tobin tax ought to be imposed on short-term capital flows. "Imported capital has been very important in the world's development process," Gramlich said. IMF criticized Gramlich's proposed reforms to the world system are very much in line with the tinkering Washington prefers. He said the IMF must be strengthened and reformed. He explicitly criticized "the IMF's one-size-fits-all recommendations of fiscal austerity." "In many Asian countries expansionary fiscal policies were clearly called for," Gramlich said. Soros, too, has advocated a stronger IMF. "We shall have to establish some kind of international supervision over the national supervisory authorities," Soros said. He said the IMF should also create a special kind of account that member nations could use to guarantee the rollover of existing debt. "But such radical ideas cannot even be considered until Congress changes its attitude toward international institutions in general and the IMF in particular," Soros said. The House has balked at lending the IMF $18 billion to replenish its funds. Even before the IMF squandered $4 billion on Russia, House leaders had refused to consider the funding bill. The opposition to the IMF spans a broad spectrum of opinion in the House, from conservative to liberal. Many of the IMF's critics in the House suggest that the IMF itself has made many economic problems worse, just as Gramlich suggested. These critics demand greater transparency inside the IMF and greater concern for workers and consumers in its policies. Grand summit The administration's response is to call for a grand summit of central bankers and finance ministers to reform the institutions created at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, just after World War II. This sounds suspiciously like what was recommended after the Mexican peso crisis of early 1995. The Group of Seven met in Halifax, Nova Scotia, to address the weaknesses in the international response. Whatever they came up with didn't prevent the Asian, Russian or Latin American crises of 1997 and 1998. Once again, Clinton has referred the problem to a committee. The "woefully inadequate" response by the Group of Seven -- and, by extension, the IMF -- to the crisis has the markets worried. Financial markets "resent any kind of government interference, but they hold a belief that if conditions get rough, the authorities will step in," Soros said. "This belief has now been shaken." It's up to Greenspan, Rubin and the rest of the policy-makers to restore that faith or replace it with something better. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief for CBS MarketWatch. CBSMW MarketPlace Contrarian Investing, Buffetology, and more! Save 20-40% off list at the CBSMW Bookstore! Download free trials of business software! Personal Finance Re-financing? Need information? GetSmart here! Intro 2.9% APR! NextCard Visa. Free Products/Trials Check out Baseline's Free Company Report of the week. Free trial subsctiptions to investment newsletters. Free annual reports for hundreds of companies. FRONT PAGE NEWS INDEX HEADLINES COLUMNS MARKET DATA GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET MONITOR CHARTING PORTFOLIOS MUTUAL FUNDS WEALTH CLUB STOCKCHAT TRADING CENTER INVESTOR'S PRIMER FEEDBACK ADVERTISING COMPANY INFORMATION CBS MARKETWATCH RT CBS MARKETWATCH LIVE c 1998 MarketWatch.com, L.L.C. All rights reserved. Disclaimer. MarketWatch.com is a joint venture of CBS and Data Broadcasting Corporation. 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