World Drug Sales Seen Reaching $308 Bln in 1998 (Update1)
Bloomberg News
September 15, 1998, 3:22 p.m. ET
World Drug Sales Seen Reaching $308 Bln in 1998 (Update1)
(Adds more comment, details, other studies.)
New York, Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Global sales of
prescription drugs in 1998 will total $308 billion, as overall
growth slows, according to projections by IMS Health, a health
care information company that tracks drug sales.
Officials from IMS told reporters at a briefing that they
expect 1998 sales will be up only 1.7 percent from the 1997 total
of $302.8 billion after much larger gains in recent years.
Between 1993 and 1997, worldwide drug sales rose more than 29
percent to $302.8 billion from $233.6 billion, according to IMS
estimates.
The U.S. market continues to show strong growth, said
William Machtiger, vice president of global client services at
IMS Health. Economic pressures in other countries, however, are
in some cases causing sales declines and pushing down overall
growth. In Japan, for example, IMS predicted 1998 sales of $40
billion -- down from $45.4 billion in 1997.
''Outside the U.S. market, key regions are entering or
repeating a period of difficulty,'' Machtiger said.
In 1998, sales in the U.S. and Canada will make up about 42
percent of worldwide drug sales, IMS said. That's up from 38
percent in 1997 and 34 percent in 1993. By comparison, Japan's
share of the market dropped from 20 percent in 1993 to 15 percent
in 1997 to a projected 13 percent in 1998.
Europe's share of the market will likely remain stable in
1998 at about 28 percent, the group said, with increased sales in
the U.K. and Spain and decreases in Germany and France.
Meanwhile, sales in some key Asian countries and the significant
Brazil market will drop, IMS predicted.
U.S. companies, which do much of their sales in the U.S. and
Canada, are positioned well, Machtiger said. Three U.S. companies
that rank among the top 10 drug companies worldwide -- Merck &
Co., Pfizer Inc. and Eli Lilly & Co. -- all had double digit
growth within the last year, he said.
While prices are also increasing to some extent, innovation
and all-new products will continue to play a major role in
driving growth, Machtiger said.
Meanwhile, companies are pouring more money into advertising
and sales, IMS officials said.
Drug companies now employ nearly 58,000 sales
representatives -- up from about 41,000 in 1996, IMS said.
Meanwhile, companies in the first five months of 1998 spent about
$530 million in advertising that goes directly to consumers, up
from about $439 million in the first five months of 1997.
The increase has come in part because of the U.S. Food and
Drug Administration's move last year to relax rules governing
television advertising of prescription drugs, IMS said. Since
then, ads have become much more frequent -- among them a massive
campaign for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s Pravachol cholesterol-
lowering drug.
In a survey of about 2,000 doctors, 53 percent reported that
more of their patients now ask for certain drugs by name, said
Kelly Peters, senior product manager for IMS Health. The
phenomenon is particularly evident among allergists, with
Schering-Plough Corp.'s Claritin allergy drug being the most
frequently requested drug overall, Peters said.
While a majority of doctors still say they'd like to see
fewer or no direct-to-consumer ads because they may confuse
patients or detract from the doctor-patient relationship, the
number of doctors voicing displeasure has increased only slightly
to 64 percent in the most recent survey from 61 percent a year
ago. ''That surprised me a little bit,'' Peters said.
A major complaint of doctors, however, was that they have to
explain to patients that they can't have a drug because it isn't
on the list of approved drugs for their managed care plans.
''They don't appreciate being put in the middle,'' she said.
IMS also projected overall U.S. health expenditures would
reach $1.229 trillion by the year 2000 and $1.529 trillion by the
year 2005. By comparison, government economists predicted that
national health care spending would reach $2.1 trillion in 2007
from $1.1 trillion this year, in a study released yesterday.
--Kristin Jensen in New York through the Washington Newsroom |
