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To: JRI who wrote (65643)9/15/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: The Phoenix  Respond to of 176387
 
Perhaps, you should go back and read the tone of your post. I found it rather directed...ok so you didn't insult me, but your toes were on the line. I already responded to you regarding DD a few days back. That I thought was the end of this discourse.

Gary, there is no need for personal insults. I have not call you names. For some
reason, you tend to do this when challenged.


really? What gives you this idea?

The market (in many segments) has been growing in the mid-teens for quite a
while......Dell has been growing units sales at 50%+ for quite a while...Looks like its
possible for Dell to grow at 50%+ while the overall market grows at 15+%


My contention has been this is not sustainable. Let's look forward not backward.

My post addressed Europe, the Americas, Japan and China. You are callling these
"fringe countries?"


Here is the "meat" from your posts.

Dell's revenues from Asia-Pacific grew 35 percent in the first quarter
and 34 percent in the second quarter despite the slowdown,


What is Asia's contribution (as a %) to PC sales? And DELL grew from how much revenue 1M to 1.35M? These are statistics that mean nothing

Personal computer sales in Europe will hit
record highs over the next two years, boosted by tumbling prices and
demand for millennium bug-free products


Tumbling prices...what does this mean for revenues? What is the elasticity of demand? Does selling more units translate into increased revenues..perhaps not if the elasticity is not there. Here's part of that same post...

Price pressures make profits elusive in the race to sell PCs, which have
become more like commodities. Profits will only be available to
companies that manage their stocks carefully....


that article ended discussing 18-22% annual growth rates..again your very posts are supporting my position, so why should I do more DD?

You're third post was not too informative and was laced with commentary regarding barrier to entry. The fact that the four leading vendors are picking up market share shows that they are indeed the leaders - not that there is a serious barrier to entry. I don't think you understand the concept.

In your last post re: Japan...

The growth picture in Japan is expected to improve a bit in this
quarter, IDC said, with unit volume up about 2 percent over the prior
year, after second-quarter unit shipments dropped 14 percent."
For the total year, unit volume in Japan is expected to decline 4
percent.


Growth is in the single digits, again substantiating my point.

I'll go on to point out that at no point did you provide a URL to any of your sources which is fine...they all support my position anyway. The market for PC's and Servers is growing at <20%. (BTW: there was nothing in your posts about the america's.) DELL has grown faster and will continue to do so but to expect them to maintain 50% growth rates is hoping for a lot.

OG



To: JRI who wrote (65643)9/15/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Claude  Respond to of 176387
 
OT
John,

Gary is obviously a short in distress - I couldn't believe he called you an idiot either. I found that post very informative and saw nothing provoking in it.

Keep up the good posts.

Claude (rhymes with TOAD)