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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (24319)	9/15/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, You know that I have never posted my trades here. Just think it is not of interest to anyone. Since you are so open with your actions, I will let you in on the secret of trading AMAT. Every time I see a bullish post here, especially from Brian, I short 100 shares. Having started when AMAT was around 33 - 34, I now have over 10,000 shares short. I will keep shorting until the absolute bottom. Where is the bottom, you may ask? The bottom is when Brian throws in the towel and sells his shares. Needless to say, only a fraction of the above is true. You will have to figure out which part yourself. Seriously, I think you made a fairly safe bet. AMAT tried to rally a number of times the last two days. The result was lower highs and lower lows on two days when the NASDAQ headed up. I am not a TA expert but I think AMAT is breaking down. Ramsey :)

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (24319)	9/16/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene: I'm long INTC and AMAT, you're short them, one of us is obviously going to be losing money. Since I respect your opinion, this worries me. I'm not sure which one of us is wrong. 1) What do you think is going to happen in the next 120 days? What is not factored in? 2. You've said recently you'll go long AMAT at 20. Have you changed your mind? All the bears (BB,aki,teri) seem to be lowering their entry prices as the stock declines. And all the bulls, well, they were fully invested at 32 or 39 or 54, now they have no cash left to buy anything. So, am I and John the only ones buying at these prices? 3. If you don't mind telling me, what else are you shorting/putting? I'm thinking Pfizer, Cisco, Dow Index, or Coke. I'm seriously thinking of selling my INTC and CSCO. So far, my maneuvering (putting and shorting; selling long-term positions) has kept my portfolio even since May, and up 100% for the year. With the Dow off 15% from it's high, my guess is most of the market risk is over. No more than another 10% downside market risk at most. I see little sector risk in semi-equips, as these stocks are now 55% to 85% off their 1997 highs. Their percentage decline is inversely related to their size, and I see no reason for that pattern to change. I see little company risk with AMAT, the gorilla of the group. Tell me what risk I'm not seeing, please. If you'd rather, tell me via private message.