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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hong-Lee Yu who wrote (5624)	9/15/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: Vector1	Respond to of 9719

In order to trade at 30-40 times BGEN will need to show a sustained 30% CAGR. With a single product and a series of royalties they are not yet even a small phama and do not justify the premium over growth that a PFE or MRK are awarded. Currently I believe a 25-30 multiple represents fair value. What could change the multiple dynamic is significant progress on the development pipeline which could begin to happen in the 4th q and 1st q of next year. By the way ,given the Avonex momentum I agree athat 2.50 should be doable next year. Indeed I believe there may even be some upside from there. Intron A royalties will be very strong next year with continued growth from Schering sales of Interferon Alpha-2b. V1