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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (27974)	9/15/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Monty... if you saw inconsistencies, then I am sure others have. So thanks for giving me the feedback. So let's straighten this out now: - Since July, I have mentioned that VGY 200 day MA has turned south meaning in general stocks are in a bear market. I have pointed out that in 1994 VGY was in a bear move for 6 or so months, but DOW only made it for 2 months. I have pointed out that DOW has still not turned down (200 day MA) although it is flattening and may be on the cusp of heading down. All of my remarks since then SHOULD be taken in that vein (or is it vane or vain?). - This past weekend, I detected a bottoming in my indicators and suggested a 5% move up within the context of a bear market. - Yesterday I discovered that VIX was trending where DOW was not... and that to me indicated the DOW needed to move up strongly ("explosively") to get on the trend track (choo-choo). I posted that to at least one or two people. Also, I noted that only 2 out of 3 of my new indicators showed a bullish breakthrough. - I mentioned today that we were at resistance. This is both Fib fan, and Fib arc as well as the highs over the last six trading days. - I trade options which are EXTREMELY unforgiving if you are wrong. While I don't pretend to be all that good an options trader, I try to be as disciplined as possible in my trades which means I must wait for as much evidence (signals, if you will) to enter the market in either direction. So when you put that all together, you have a picture of an experienced trader who recognizes the market for the time is bearish and is undergoing what is possibly a bear rally. Since as that trader I prefer to trade with the trend, until I get evidence that the worm has turned (bullish) or that we WILL have an extreme move (meaning we must get through resistance), I prefer waiting on the sidelines, no matter how long that takes. And sometimes when I respond to people I will feedback and amplify what they are saying to make sure I understand what they are saying... which may or may not agree with my own philosophy and or assessment of the markets! I usually mention that in the post but if I don't think it matters much, I usually overlook the differences... people must do what they are going to do and certainly not what I tell them to... doesn't work that way and I am not an investment advisor. So, if I haven't put you to sleep, please, understand I am not out on this thread shotgunning ideas or throwing out sensational statements to get reactions. I am trying to put forth my own ever evolving picture of what the market is, is not, may be, and probably won't be. And MANY times I am wrong... but as far as I know, I have never been inconsistent with what I say... right OR wrong. And one last thing... I reserve the right to turn on a dime... and do... but not without saying so. Questions? Bill