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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (27998)	9/15/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Ross McEathron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I see a convergence of two support levels for VIX to overcome to the downside if we are to sustain this rally. First is the horizontal resistance at 36 or so and the rising bottoms as seen in the chart I will link to which is also in the 36 or so range. That said though...these kind of sustained levels in the VIX haven't been seen (except very briefly in Oct 97) in the more than 4 years of data I have on the VIX. We had a spike back in Oct that surpassed this past high, but we did not sustain the high levels that we are experiencing now. Breadth in the Naz was less than impressive today considering the so-so rally and volume was also less than impressive just as it has been throughout most of Aug and Sept. You usually see declines occurring along with anemic volume. I also have most of my indicators saying that a bottom is likely in place, but I have this sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach that this may not last very long depending on the news situation. Today may have been a sympathy rally for the Greenspan testimony tomorrow. If he doesn't talk interest rate cut tomorrow, we could be in for a quick move to the downside. Then of course there's always the Clinton thing hanging out there. <ggg> I think earnings disappointments are mostly priced into this market as long as they aren't excessively bad. One wild card could be the fact that an awful lot of money flowed into bonds during this past decline and that money is likely waiting to move back in to the market as witnessed by the bond and stock markets moving in opposite directions lately (i.e., market up, bonds down and vice versa). I'm betting on the upside until something tells me otherwise for now. Ross members.aol.com