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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (38493)	9/16/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

carl, this downturn was not sudden and unexpected to those that have eyes and can see more than the direction of the herd. many saw it in late 1996 and all through 1997. the upturn won't be unexpected - except for maybe the herd. the glut will end, for sure. remember, current capacity can increase 200% 12 months out. do you think profits will be rolling in with that kind of increase in capacity? the moment profits are made then all that capacity comes on stream as everyone tries to benefit from the improved pricing. glut will result. so, the next 12 months is dead. will demand grow 200% in 12 months? pass that doobie, bro, if you answered yes. ;-) 200% in 2 years? maybe. maybe not. the y2k is a wildcard. will people buy more or fewer pcs? i don't know yet nor can i make an educated guess. fewer pcs is the death knell. i'd wait before going longif i even had that tendency. i don't.

To: Carl R. who wrote (38493)	9/16/1998 1:04:00 AM
From: Trey McAtee	Respond to of 53903

carl-- it WILL end eventually...its the 'eventually' that bothers me. dont kid yourself, geoeconomically and geopolitically things are terrible. japan is not in a recession...they are in a depression. we are in risk of entering a deflationary cycle, if (as some have suggested) we arent in it already. have you noticed how that in the last two weeks the fed as added liquidity at least twice? when the turn comes we will have plenty of advance knowledge. but, it isnt here yet...we are a long way off. another thing to think about is will MU still be around when the turn comes? for me...things are just a little too hard to make paying 27/share for a company with no earnings rational. good luck to all, trey