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To: goldsnow who wrote (19042)	9/16/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116779

that man is smart! "Earlier this month, Hegde called dependence on the dollar ''suicidal'' and said he had sent a team of officials to the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia to explore the possibilities of counter-trade without using the dollar." bobby ps..oops just saw the Czechoslovkia(sp) isn't doing so well..nor is my spelling biz.yahoo.com

To: goldsnow who wrote (19042)	9/16/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116779

Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov by Keith Bush On September 11, the Duma overwhelmingly (317-63) approved the nomination of Yevgenii Maximovich Primakov as Russia's new prime minister. Virtually all leading political parties and figures had expressed support for him, including the communists, the nationalists, the agrarians, Yabloko, Our Home is Russia, Yurii Luzhkov, Aleksander Lebed, Yegor Stroyev, Gennadi Seleznev, and Boris Berezovsky. The only prominent dissenters had been the ultra nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky and the hardline communist Viktor Anpilov-both marginal forces. Boris Yeltsin is believed to have agreed to this compromise candidate largely because a Prime Minister Primakov would not eclipse or undermine the failing president in a way that, say, a Prime Minister Yurii Luzhkov might have. Yevgenii Primakov is a highly intelligent and pragmatic opportunist. In his long establishment career, he has demonstrated leadership and managerial skills in running the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. As Russia's foreign minister, he played a weak hand with great dexterity. As Director of the Institute of the World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) in 1985-1989, he earned the respect of his academic colleagues and, during those four years, was exposed to the economic thinking of the Soviet era. But he has no pretensions to expertise in economics and the effective resolution of the economic and financial crisis now engulfing Russia will depend to a large extent on the key posts to be filled in his cabinet. We must wait and see whom he picks. The first two economic appointments may bring peace with the Duma and with industrial dinosaurs, but they represent an emphatic retreat from the market Primakov told the Duma that Yurii Maslyukov will be made first deputy prime minister in overall charge of economic policy. Even though Maslyukov has learned the market talk during his chairmanship of the Duma's Economic Policy Committee, it is thought that his heart and his instincts hanker for his glory days as the last Chairman of the USSR Gosplan. Thus the subsidizing of value-subtracting enterprises, some form of price control, and printing money would come naturally. In one of his first pronouncements after his appointment, Maslyukov ruled out the introduction of a currency board for Russia. Another skeleton from a failed past has reappeared in the shape of Viktor Gerashchenko, described by Jeffrey Sachs as "the world's worst central banker." Yeltsin asked the Duma to confirm Gerashchenko as the chairman of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). In his previous incarnation in that post, with enthusiastic support from the then prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, until his resignation in 1994, Gerashchenko advocated massive soft credits for state farms and rust-belt factories. He was also the instigator of the disruptive currency reforms of January 1991 and July 1993; indeed, it might be argued that, for most Russians, confidence in the ruble as a steadfast store of value did not really return until after the ruble redenomination of January 1998-only to evaporate with the ruble devaluation of August 17. It is difficult to envisage Maslyukov and Gerashchenko sitting peacefully at the same cabinet table with the likes of Grigorii Yavlinsky and Boris Fedorov, let alone pursuing a common economic strategy. Prime Minister Primakov will be well aware of the need for urgent external financial assistance. After years of healthy surpluses, Russia's current account is expected to be in the red this year to the tune of some $10 billion. In the wake of the de facto default caused by the forced restructuring of the ruble-denominated internal debt, the 90-day moratorium imposed on repayments of foreign loans, and indications that Russia will not be in a position to service its huge foreign debt, it is unlikely that funding will be available in the near term from sovereign or private sector sources. Which raises the knotty problem of what the forthcoming G-7 meeting and especially the IMF Board can do, or intend to do, about Russia. Grant the next $4.3 billion tranche from the IMF-led rescue package to replenish the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia, only to have this dispersed to a small circle of favored commercial banks and thence in large part to private accounts in Cyprus? Support the subsidization of value-subtracting industrial dinosaurs? Avert their gaze while the printing presses are switched on to pay off wage and pension arrears? Watch this space. Expert Extra-CRYSTAL BALL! "Anyone who tries to predict what will happen in Russia is an idiot." -Grigorii Yavlinsky