To: Hal Campbell who wrote (3428 ) 9/16/1998 11:42:00 PM From: Ed Perry Respond to of 17679
......... TA is giving portending signals First, there is a lot of support coming in at 1 1/16. We are seeing 8 of the last 12 candles as red counting from the 8/31 low. Also a lot of doji's hammers and tweezers. All of this is taking place within the range of the 8/31 extreme day. Volume is also acting different in the last five days. While the 8/31 low was matched by high volume then a tapering off, now we are seeing a choppy volume pattern but no price movement. This volume pattern was not seen since last late March. Chaikin's Money Supply is way at the top of the chart and OnBalance Volume is flatlined near the bottom of it's permissible range. Finally prices are drifting sidewards and therefore will soon intersect with a trendline drawn from tops starting as far back as late May 97. While it seems awkward to present it this way, we may be looking at a situation where the more primary trend is turning upward but the immediate shorter term trend is not yet reflecting this. In sum, the fundamentals may be ahead of the technical price action -- or the stock is having trouble holding it's current state of being technically oversold. I think we will get a rally from here. Ed Perry PS in a reply to Gus on technical tools, I left out one very interesting tool called Stock Blocks. See stockblocks.com At $129 use the pro version. The book to use to accompany this tool is Richard Arms "Trading Without Fear". Once, when hot on the trail of NET searching on equivolume and following up telephone leads I kept searching and telephoning until I stumbled into a phone conversation with this terribly knowledgeable Equivolume person. Of course, after a while I had to ask and it was Richard Arms. He prefers the MetaStock implementation of Equivolume and hinted at the fact that the Stock Blocks version was too flexible for his need of quick scanning. However, if you want to OD on volume, and see an entirely new perspective then try Stock Blocks. It is very useful at trend extremes and at congestion and support / resistance levels. It will give you graphic presentations you have not seen before. Incidentally, Equivolume is another one of those tools from some time ago and in it's interpretation, seems to mirror the Wycoff approach. PPS: While I won the first round of the case, I lost the appeal. I could have gone to a second appeal, but the expense would have exceeded the damages, and I was beginning to worry about a frivolous suit.