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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28081)	9/16/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ......from your post.....".I fully agree that there is something very wrong with this picture. Honestly, Arik, this is the very mystery itself why I keep getting buy signals jumping out all over the place in the face of imminent monetary disasters worldwide. I can't ignore my technicals, or argue with them. That would be foolish. " i am of many years a student of Elliott, i believe there is a very good chance that we are in a large Cycle correction that began in April..........in June-July there was what appeared to me as a stupid, senseless run up, i said "something is wrong with this picture"........The Cycle looks like a BIG ABC.....the "A" started in april and breaks down into a smaller abc....."a"-- apr/may...."b"-- june/july "c"--- Aug ........we have now entered the Big B...it should have an "a" up...then a "b" down...then a "c" up.......after that the BIG C Down............ reason i bring this up is that i believe we are in the "a" up part of the Big B wave up.........i would like to paraphase a description of B wave personality from the masters of EWT............................................................... "B" waves are frauds, they are sucker plays, speculators paradise,daytraders dreams, expressions of institutional complacency. They often lack breadth, they focus on a narrow range of stocks, they are often unconfirmed by other indicators..ie. Dow Theory and others...they are rarely technically strong, they often fly in the face of overall fundamentals...they are often bull or bear traps.... they are virtually always doomed to complete or greater retracement by the ensuing C wave. If the analyist says to himself "There is something wrong with this market, this doesn't make sense", chances are it is a "B" wave. sound familiar? i said the same to myself back in July carl

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28081)	9/17/1998 7:24:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 94695

GZ, >>But, if anyone could offer a reasonable explanation for why U.S. markets continue higher in the face of severe global problems I would be the first to sit down and listen. Yep, you got me here. I read Carl's response to your Q, and I think it's a great post, but that answer will not satisfy ones that are not EWT followers. I have some answers, none of them offer a complete explanation, but IMO they give a partial explanation. 1. The bull lasted 16 years. You can't expect it would die without a fight. What I mean is the investing public conditioning to buy the dip and hold and hold and hold will take time to break. 401(k) money is still flowing to equities, and for the most part, the investing public still sees no other option but stocks (with two bad reasonings: 1. This what made me all this money 2. Where else can I put it and get 25% a year). 2. There are only a handful of stocks that keep the major indices afloat. MSFT, DELL, CSCO, MRK, JNJ and IBM. One could also add XON and INTC which helped the major indices a lot since 9/4. Maybe this is a good buying opportunity for small caps (the Russell is still 27% below its April high) but the tech big caps didn't give, yet. Investor's psychology again- stick with what's rising. That investor that got upset that his stocks were losing and told his broker that he wants to sell everything...AND BUY DELL INSTEAD, is a extreme, but very telling example. The foriegn money is on its way out, and is probably the the reason for the decline, and the American public is holding. What moves the market daily is the pros, and it seems that they would very much like a rising market, and will do everything in their power to keep the market afloat. The big boys are probably resposible for the whipsaw advance since 9/1, but unlike 10/97 it looks like they lack the resources to sustain much higher levels. Last year they didn't have so many things going against them. I believe that the Big Boys are aware of the possibility that the bull market is over, but try everything they can to prevent this from happening. So they focus on keeping the indices afloat, and try to squeeze as many shorts as they can, or whipsaw the hedge funds to death. But this is all temporary. When the public stops putting new money in the market the big boys will have no resources left to play with, and the smart money that sold in July and bought in September, (sold into strength and bot the "dip") will be the big loser. ATG We are already in a bear.