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To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (3025)	9/16/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 14427

B, About OSX stock - your guess is as good anyone's actually. What we currently have is a continuing sentiment shift with positive bias with the expectation that oil will be able to sustain above $12 and energy demand should be decent the next few months, at least not the scenario painted by Noesis a month ago. And with the orchestrated fund buying, the OSX stocks saw their bounce. Now all these are sentiment, expectation. The reality is the negative fundamental trend remains. When one looks at rig count, dayrate, number of stacked rigs, etc. one would not see any sign of improvement yet. However, this does not mean thing will not get better, or worse, going forward. The chance of seeing FGII at $10 is there. The following events will have to happen first though: overall market crash big; oil closes toward $12 and threatening to break below it; more bad fundamentals; more negative earning surprises like the one seismic players had last quarter; more global economic slowdown. The list can go on a little longer but you get the point. What about the chance FGII will be at $30 in a month? Sure. The following events will have to happen first though: mideast war breaks out between Iraq and the US; Teleban bombed Iranian oil fields; Russians, Nigeria, and other key oil producing countries unable to produce, severe winter; Asian demand shows sign of an uptick; OPEC really works its magic. The list can go on a little longer but you get the point. It is up to you how you want to play this game. Opportunities are everywhere in either direction. BTW - do you ever come up with your own view or do you solicit other's viewpoints and let the different views mingled together in your own mind and then act on this melting pot consensus? (Not a sarcasm but I'm curious if your go-where-it-is-hot-today strategy actually work well).