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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (13808)	9/17/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Craig, I've heard lots of people talk about how "this time it's different" becuase interest rates are -- if anything -- declining, not rising. One only needs to look to Japan to see how declining -- almost to zero -- interest rates don't make a bit of difference in a deflationary economy. What seems to be forgotten is the REAL interest rate. And in deflationary times, the REAL rate can be climbing even when nominal interest rates are flat or declining. At the moment we appear to be in deflationary times. Certainly most of the world is. Adjust for this, and the conclusion is that our interest rate situation is not so rosy as it may seem. Again, look at Japan. Just cut from .5% to .25%. A lot of good it did for them... mg