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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (15079)	9/17/1998
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Wow, that stuff is contagious! Go Ramsey. All I want to know is; will Alan G push the start button on the printing press and swamp the world with new US$? Did he say he is going to or will just continue to think about it? You are doing fine Ramsey. Keep it up. I'd say Green$pan is perfectly happy with the Dow at 8000 and not actively falling. So I don't expect any rushed easing of money supply. Meanwhile Irwin and Son will demo a cdma2000 handset and computer for Web surfing at PCS98. THAT is better news than a printing of money. The Zambian GSM replacement of cdma sounds a bit odd and I don't give much credence to either the use of cdmaOne in Zambia, or its replacement with GSM. Who knows what bribery and corruption goes on there or why any particular technology is selected? Mqurice PS: It's 'Capitol Hill', not 'capital hill', though it is the hill in the capital.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (15079)	9/17/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

Ramsey - my Chicken Little2 responses. Hadn't read your post when I wrote my take on the Greenspan/Rubin appearances. You may be right longer term, probably are, but I think IMF funding IS needed right now. Actually, re: Russia, I didn't hear them arguing much about continued funding for Russia. Sure, they defended the initial effort, given the Russian security issues, but they were not saying more money for Russia now, before it has any sort of plan in place. But with respect to places like Brazil, funding really could make a difference. Brazil has done lots of things right. And they still have good reserves. Though they are going fast. What Brazil hasn't done right is reducing their budget deficit enough. Cardozo was struggling mightily to accomplish that before the current electoral season shut down the legislature down there. He made some progress, but much was put off by the legislature, as Lulu, the fairly radical leftist running against him was gaining standings in the polls, and looked could just win. Now Cardozo looks to win handily. A vote for Cardozo is clearly a vote to reduce the deficit, and accept some pain, to avoid the horrors of a shock and forced devaluation, with the likely attendant hyper inflation. With which Brazilians are all too familiar. And which Cardozo was elected the first time to reverse, and which he did reverse. I.e. Brazil needs a little more time. If it doesn't get it, there will be widely cascading ruin. Which we will surely feel more than a little. THe IMF is out of money. Spent it all in Asia. Brazil could REALLY benefit from having a standby package. If it had it, it very probably wouldn't need it. A classic case where the IMF can really make a difference. Russia was/is a classic case where the IMF couldn't do squat. Russia does not have a fuctioning government. A government that cannot collect taxes, much less enforce other laws, cannot very effectively do much and not long do anything. The IMF basically knew that and resisted the 22bil package for Russia. Pressure, from the US, and also Germany and Britian forced them to do it. Everyone knew the chances were slim. Nobody wanted to be responsible for "loosing" or "spurning" Russia, no matter how likely collapse looked to happen anyway. Nobody thought they would act as irresponsibily, and blow it as fast as they did a month or so ago. Russia is a special case. And given their nukes, the West did not want to be seen saying "West to Russia, drop dead" (as Pres.Ford was classically misrepresented as saying to NYC in a full page headlines in the NY Post) until they had unambiguously blown it on their own, despite help from the West forthcoming. It was, in truth, a sort of protection money. As I said, a special case. And probably cheap, all things considered. Doug