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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24363)	9/17/1998 1:51:00 AM
From: Fortinwit	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Someone said they can't tell the difference between me and Brian any longer. Er, I said that. Meant it well though, so please don't take offense. You've been very prescient on this thread, and, although I retain a negative stance towards AMAT (oct and jan puts), I get quite worried when someone such as yourself changes posture; makes me re-examine what I'm looking at since presumably we're looking at the same things. I went back to your excellent post in June in which you laid out what you were looking for in a semi-equip bottom: exchange2000.com Are you still looking for these events to take place, or are you largely convinced that enough of them already have? I'm not asking to put you on the spot... your list and my list look a lot alike, and I'm wondering what I'm not seeing... F.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24363)	9/17/1998 6:47:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 70976

Jacob: Re: "Anyone remember the sequence and timing of events in 1996?" One of the interesting facts about 1996 is that AMAT reached its low during an overall market correction in July 1996 and then revisited those lows briefly in early September 1996 and increased in value before a turn in sector orders. I find it interesting that AMAT has made a lower low at a time when we are moving closer to a recovery in this sector. I believe this drop in trading range is due primarily to the market correction and has little connection with anything having to do with AMAT. The relative strength of AMAT and others in coming out of this correction does, however, leave something to be desired.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (24363)	9/17/1998 7:59:00 AM
From: Tejman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

JS, Its strange or just a coincidence, but I have been thinking on the same lines(since the EPS of Intel is rounded upwards). Unfortunately back in 96 I had Intel shares but it kept going down till it bottomed at $50. It started slowly during the summer of 96. Then around end Nov it reached $87 when Kurklac was still very negative on Semi's, I therefore panicked & sold it (My biggest mistake as it went to $150 pre/split only 10/11 months later). After having sold Intel I followed AMAT very carefully it was still at $25/26 around Jan 97. It started slowly around March it was $36 when I got in, but thereafter it started real upwards. The point is when Companies like Intel say the demand is increasing, there is was lag of about 3 months before AMAT stabalized on a price level and a lag of 7/8 months before it lifts off from this platform. The demand in equipment lags by few months the demand of Semi's. This was the history of 96, I personally don't tend to draw any conclusions from it as Intels demand can be temporary and the whole situation is different & 7/8 months is a long time.