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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (7321)	9/17/1998 2:01:00 AM
From: Simon Cardinale	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

The question of roadmaps: I've been thinking about this public roadmap issue, and I'm not sure it's such a good idea. Benefits: 1)Stockholders know what to expect. 2) It would probably generate some media coverage (though we've seen how TNT's early coverage has bit them in the ass somewhat.) Problems: 1) Customers may put off purchasing to wait for next product. This is generally a losing proposition, but many people try. I used to sell notebook computers and if there was a new product coming out, people were often willing to wait a month or two. Either to get the new product, or to get the old when the price dropped. 2) Competitors will know what to implement. There are many 3D features that could go into the next generation. Because 3Dfx has control over its own API it tends to be first. But if they tell everyone what they're going to do their competitors can start designing support and lobby MS to add it to D3D. Hardware competition will not lag as far behind technologically, and neither will API competition. I think that everyone knows the next leap will come from adding some kind of geometry acceleration to the card. However, only some functions are going to be done by the card. If a roadmap included this (and since along with release date this is the important piece of information) the competition would be tougher. Some point to Intel's roadmap. I think the fact that they're close to a monopoly gives them certain advantages in this area. Also most of the roadmap involves amount of cache, socket design, and clockspeed. Most of the new features (like MMX) are pretty small compared to the big changes in the future for 3D chipsets. Intel's not giving much away with their roadmap. If 3Dfx did something comparable they would be. It's difficult to ask investors to trust management at this time, naturally. However recent events don't change the fact that the company needs to look to the long term future of the company or they'll be selling out stockholders in the years to come for short term hand holding. Another thing to think about: What's ATI's roadmap? Matrox's? nVidia's? We're so used to them following 3Dfx's lead that we're forgetting the blank uncertain bits between their last release and 3Dfx's next. Comments solicited! Simon