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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (6927)	9/17/1998 3:55:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10921

"Semi industry poised to rebound in 1999"-per analyst Jonathan Joseph biz.yahoo.com

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (6927)	9/17/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Re: Trap or Bottom Personally, I think "bottom", although I would hesitate to predict a recovery date. The lack of "visibility" (aka "lack of horizon") for recovery is the whole reason the stocks are so incredibly cheap right now. At the first sign of good news, they are going to bounce up. You pays your money, you takes your chances. Tell me this: do you think the chip industry is dead, or in a lull?

To: David Rosenthal who wrote (6927)	9/18/1998 6:59:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Trap or Bottom, p. II: Okay, so some guy named Hodess disagrees with me. What does he know? << SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Makers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment are headed for more trouble, a prominent analyst predicted at the industry's annual forecast dinner. Brett Hodess, an analyst at Montgomery Securities, said weakening orders for about 25 equipment makers will cause many of them to fall short of current earnings estimates in the third and fourth quarters. He predicted industry revenues will be down 10% to 20% next year, compared with his firm's estimate of a 26% drop in 1998. "We have never had two years of double-digit declines like this," Mr. Hodess said in a speech sponsored by the Semiconductor Equipment and Material's Institute Wednesday night. "It looks as if there is another year of pain ahead of us." The Mountain View, Calif., trade group doesn't forecast itself, but chose Montgomery analysts to present their conclusions. But Elizabeth Schuman, an analyst for the Semi group, concurred that industry sales will drop at least 20% this year based on the actual results so far. Most equipment stocks have been pummeled this year, with many companies' stocks down about a third compared with the start of the year. Some analysts aren't as pessimistic as Mr. Hodess. Dataquest Inc., an influential market-research firm, predicts a small increase in sales next year. Gus Richard, an analyst at Hambrecht & Quist, still thinks next year's orders will be flat, but agrees that orders have weakened lately. "The upturn I anticipated isn't materializing," Mr. Richard said. "Orders have weakened in the last 30 days." The negative outlook contrasts with some recent positive signs among companies that make chips and buy production equipment. Intel Corp