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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David who wrote (10370)	9/17/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: R. Jaynes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

David, Thanks for your analysis. As for the following story from the Philippines, I have read it thru a couple of times and don't know if IDX is involved even though there is mention of Sagem (not Sagem Morpho). I don't recall IDX being associated with the Philippines before. Anybody know for sure if IDX is involved or not? web.lexis-nexis.com Rick

To: David who wrote (10370)	10/15/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

IDX market share growth in AFIS tenprinter market . . . . Fowler has said that IDX has gained market share in the FBI-approved tenprinter market (i.e., the TP-600 sales). In fact, the number now being used is that IDX is getting 85% of available business. Assuming this is true, and using my 10-K analysis to estimate that IDX increased its TP-600 sales by 75% in FY98 to a total of $32.4 million, it is possible to model the IDX market share in FY97, and the increase in share in FY98. You just have to make a series of assumptions about how fast the overall tenprinter market is growing. The algebra is pretty easy. If IDX increased TP-600 sales from FY97 levels of $18.5M to FY98 levels of $32.4M (representing an 85% share), then the total FY98 tenprinter market was about $38.1M. (So that 32.4/x=.85, x=38.1.) If the total market grew 25% year to year, IDX' FY97 share would have been $18.4M/(38.1M/1.25) or 61%; if it grew 30% year to year, the IDX FY97 share would have been 63%; at a 35% growth rate, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 66%; at a 40% market growth, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 68%; and, at a 45% market growth rate, IDX would have had an FY97 share of 70%. So under my estimates and models, IDX pushed its market share for new business in the FY97 to FY98 time frame anywhere from 15% to 24% higher. The catch is, now that IDX has such a large market share, it must rely on an accelerating overall market to maintain a 75% growth rate, since IDX TP-600 sales growth must now approximate the market as a whole (that is, they are the market as a whole). Doesn't it seem to you that the overall market sales growth is accelerating this year?