To: Ed Sammons who wrote (37119 ) 9/17/1998 1:32:00 PM From: Maverick Respond to of 1577911
Semiconductor Market is Bottoming Out, Will Rebound in 1999 NationsBanc Montgomery Securities Semiconductor Analysts Tell Investors SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 17, 1998--One of the most brutal downturns in the history of the semiconductor industry is starting to bottom out, setting the stage for a rebound during 1999, according to the analysts who follow the industry for NationsBanc Montgomery Securities (NMS). ''We think the industry is beginning to form a bottom. We see microprocessors leading the recovery, as end-users enter another upgrade cycle caused by the introduction of Windows NT 5.0,'' said Jonathan Joseph, an NMS semiconductor analyst. Joseph's comments came at the 28th Annual NationsBanc Montgomery Securities Investment Conference, which is running this week in San Francisco. The conference, which is the firm's largest to date, features 245 companies with a combined market capitalization of $1.6 trillion making presentations to more than 1,900 portfolio managers. These managers represent 280 different institutions with a combined $3.5 trillion in assets under management. Joseph was joined at the conference's annual semiconductor industry workshop by colleagues Brett Hodess, Douglas Lee and Clark Westmont. For a recovery to occur, the personal computer industry needs to continue to grow, since 54 percent of all semiconductors are used in manufacturing PCs, Joseph said. Meanwhile, the communications industry must continue its rollout of new telecommunications equipment, such as digital wireless handsets, which have been selling briskly, and semiconductor-based networking system software. In addition, for a solid recovery to take place, the worldwide excess semiconductor manufacturing capacity must be absorbed, while leading-edge manufacturers must continue with their announced plans to convert their production facilities to the state-of-the-art 0.18 microns standard. An added factor in a potential recovery of the U.S.-based industry is the dramatic drop in production by the Japanese and Korean manufacturers, the NMS analysts said. With the Asian economic crisis continuing, neither Japanese nor Korean manufacturers are expected to be influential players in the semiconductor market in the coming years, Joseph said.