To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (1090 ) 9/17/1998 9:52:00 PM From: Justa Werkenstiff Respond to of 15132
** Mutual Fund Flows ** NEW YORK, Sept 17 (Reuters) - U.S. mutual fund investors have stayed calm through continued rounds of market volatility, people at several fund companies and industry experts said Thursday. Mutual Fund Trim Tabs, a Santa Rosa, Calif.-statistical service, is estimating that flows into stock funds turned positive in September after August's net outflows. Based on figures through September 14, the service projects the month will end with net inflows of $16.7 billion into stock funds. Carl Wittnebert, director of research at Trim Tabs, noted that there is room for surprise under current market conditions. He noted that a huge outflow on August 31 balloonedthe August net outflow figure to an estimated $5.4 billion. Official figures for August flows from the industry's trade group, the Investment Company Institute (ICI), will not be available until later this month. If the ICI numbers confirm the Trim Tabs estimate, it will be the first monthly outflow for stock funds since 1990, when August and September saw more money going out than coming in. The period coincided with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the aftermath. Wittnebert said that bond funds had an estimated inflow of $700 million in September. Conversations with people at a number of fund companies suggested that mutual investors have taken the market's gyrations in stride without any sense of panic. "I suspect what's been going on over the last 30 days is that a lot of money manager sold a little bit of stock, not so much as to time the market but in anticipation of redemptions," said Charles Henderson, chief investment officer with The Chicago Trust Co, an adviser to the Alleghany Funds. "I don't see any information out there that there are wholesale redemptions going on." Even if redemptions were to pick up speed, the industry is in good shape to handle it with about $144 billion in cash reserves in the stock funds at the end of July. Mike Treske, president of Evergeen Investors Services, a Charlotte, N.C.-based mutual fund complex with $50 billion in assets, said investment patterns have been fairly constant although new money coming into the funds seems tilted to more conservative investments including balanced funds and growth and income portfolios. Treske said that some of the company's best selling high performance funds have been building cash levels toward the 15-20 percent level. Evergeen is part of the First Union Corp <FTU.N>, the sixth-largest U.S. bank holding company. "We've seen fixed income and equity sales keep pace with what they have done in the prior months year-to-date," said Doug Lucas, manager of corporate communications at Federated Investors Inc <FII.N>. Assets in the company's money market funds have been growing at a rate of about $1.0 billion a month, he said. Lucas attributed some of the calm to the fact that Federated does not sell funds directly to the public but instead uses intermediaries such as banks, broker-dealers and advisers. He said the owners of the funds typically receive advice and counseling before reaching a decision to change their investments. Pittsburgh-based Federated has about $102 billion in fund assets. Gerard Breitner, a New York-based money manager who advises clients on how to invest in mutual funds, said the market faces continued volatility and he is recommending high cash positions. "I still think most of the downside is behind us but maybe not all," he said. He is telling new clients to invest 35 to 50 percent of their funds and wait for a better environment later in the year to put the reet to work. Breitner, who heads Excomp Asset Management, believes the Dow industrials may be approaching 9,000 by the end of the year. In the meantime he said stocks may retest recent lows and possibly drop a little below the lows. In addition to the spreading global economic slowdown, Breitner says the U.S. markets have been affected by foreign money, which pushed stocks to record highs early in the year. Now, he said, the foreign flows are starting to dry up and some is even moving back out of the United States. At the same time, he said, hedge funds nursing huge losses overseas have been forced to sell stocks in the U.S. In late afternoon the Dow was off 213 points, to 7876, equivalent to a decline of 2.6 percent.