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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (18192)	9/17/1998 9:24:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Respond to of 213177

Alomex, good analysis. But, I still believe iMac sales volume is way above 190k in August. Apple got 150k pre-orders, If they only sold 190k in August, then there are only 40k sold between August 15th to 31st. What an awful attrition rate. I bet you will argue that your number was real orders from customers. Well, same as 150,000 pre-orders. Besides, schools are particularly in high demand this period of time, which could contribute to 200%-400% increase when comparing to the previous quarter and the percentage of schools ordered in this quarter is amazingly high, therefore, the data need to be adjusted accordingly. Overall, you've done a good job and start to realize how much substantial improvement Apple has accomplished so far this quarter. At the current level of stock price, it may trigger institutions to initiate upgrades if they really have read through Apple's sales recently. Phil

To: Alomex who wrote (18192)	9/18/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Eric Yang	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

"Still processing the figures... You see, the ZD report says that sales increased 20% without the iMacs and 109% with the iMacs. Since Apple was selling an average of 214K units each month last quarter, this gives a total of 214K0.20 = 43K more non-iMacs sold, and more importantly, a total of 214K0.89 = 190K iMacs sold in the month of August. " ci.infobeads.com Al, I my humble opinion there are two serious flaws in the method of your calculation. One cause you to underestimate the growth suggested by the ZD MI report. A second one will cause the number to be inflated. First of all the 20% growth in Aug (without iMac) in the ZD MI report was "MONTH to MONTH" sales growth. In other words, Aug was 20% over the month of July. July sales grew 12% over June June sales grew 27% over May and April (which means that June sales was higher than the average of June/May/April in Q3.) So the actual growth for the month of Aug (without accounting for iMac) over the 3 month average for last quarter is closer to 52% not just 20%. Thus you can't simply multiply 20% by the average sales last Q. Another issue is that the growth indicated in the ZD MI report represent retail sales (and is assume to be US only). Unless one assumes that the same growth rate applies to edu sales etc...and the same growth rate applies to international sales, one really cannot multiply the growth rate by "total" sales to estimate the growth rate. We also don't know if the growth rate mentioned in ZD MI report is unit growth or sales dollar growth. That last point is especially important when looking at the 109% month to month growth with iMac. 109% unit growth rate is great but if 109% growth is in retail revenue...that would be totally awesome. In any case my estimate last month of 320K unit shipment for the Pro line which is essentially flat from Q3 looks to be too conservative now. In the midst of all the report of low availability of Pro line right before the "speed bump" I thought it would be prudent to be conservative. Demand of all three product line looks very strong right now. Let's hope Apple can produce them quickly enough. Eric