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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (1083)	9/17/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

Ken, At least 2 strong reasons not to buy back shares now. 1. No one knows when this downturn will end including the CFO's of these equipment companies. Cash is the most important asset to ensure their viability. 2. Once the next upleg starts, a little cash may make the difference between an attractive acquisition and struggling until the next cyclical peak. And as a final point, cash will be required to gear up during that upleg: more employees; more WIP, more inventory in general; and more capital expenses. Squandering a precious resource in order to gratify a couple shareholders for a couple hours doesn't strike me as a particularly farsighted use of cash at this time. JMHO, Ian.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (1083)	9/18/1998 3:56:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

K. Lingerfelt, we are in agreement, not disagreement. My point was historical: it doesn't matter which small semi equip you own, over the past year, you were killed exactly the same way. That says nothing about what will happen in the future. The decline happened indiscriminately, without regard to the enterprise value of the company (which differs greatly according to how much cash is on hand) and the multiples. It's as if Mr. Market wanted to see the same reduction in everybody's PSR, rather than in everybody's enterprise value / sales ratio. When a few of the stocks start to trade near cash, as ASYT MTSN and BRKS are, so that the enterprise value is nearly zero, this might not seem to make sense, but it is what has happened. Now what about the future? If the stock price decline stops here, it could reverse with the same lack of discrimination. OTOH, if the semi-equip downcycle is extremely long-lived, we are certainly safer owning the cash-rich companies, aren't we? That's the chicken-little outlook. BTW, I double checked the 10Q, and you are right, ASYT has $88,015,000 cash / 12,148,737 shares = $7.24 cash per share.