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Strategies & Market Trends : Evaluating Rumors and News Along With T/A and F/A -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan Saline who wrote (4)	9/17/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 141

Wayne, thanks for starting this thread. I will be learning rather than contributing, because I've never been able to play extraordinary events with any confidence.

To: Susan Saline who wrote (4)	9/17/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: tide	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 141

Susan - Pretty much the way I see action on upgrades/downgrades but probably you have observed this longer & more thoroughly than I. Still wish one could get some of that info 'first'. Getting news 'first' also seems extremely valuable, although sometimes I overlook news which should be diagnosed fully & moved on quicker. An example today is with CLEC which has a case against Bel South & is badly beaten down. If you look at today's chart, my guess is that many are thinking CLEC is going to fly. Prob gap up tomorrow & could do much more IMO. I didn't figure this out 'til after hours. Asensio is attacking HEB & that could be a downer for that one in the AM. Just need to get this info quick & then make the right decision PDQ. tide

To: Susan Saline who wrote (4)	9/18/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 141

OK, Clinton tapes are to be released Monday morning, I believe. Any impact? Any likely selling today by people who don't want to hold for the event? My feeling is the whole Clinton thing has been played out, barring an impeachment or resignation. But foreign markets may be a bit more nervous about this sort of thing, and, therefore, perhaps more likely to sell off. Regarding upgrades and downgrades, I've heard that sometimes for Nasdaq stocks the firm upgrading a stock can often be found on level 2 selling that same day. I don't have level 2, but that's got to be a useful indicator of pumping and dumping. I think all the circumstances surrounding an upgrade or downgrade have to be examined -- the timing relative to recent movements in a stock price; is the broker buy side or sell side, etc.

To: Susan Saline who wrote (4)	9/18/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 141

As I understand it, news of upgrades, downgrades and analyst comments for that matter get released to the brokers in the house about 30 minutes before the rest of the world gets it. At least this is true at Merril Lynch. The hard part is figuring out how the market will react after the gunslingers take the price in the obvious and expected direction. Upgrades and Downgrades don't have much of a lasting effect. My experience is the effect lasts about 2 to 3 days and pretty much all of the trading opportunities are over as soon as the stock gaps up. I think what happens is the short term buying/selling ammo gets used up quick and when that happens you get a reversal against the origianal news/price move. Just takes a few days to run the cycle. If you have ever gone and looked at the long term effect on price by analyst upgrades/downgrades you will see that the vast majority of the records are horrendous. I encourage everybody to go to briefing.com, pick a stock and look at when various houses came out with upgrades and downgrades. The upgrades and downgrades invariable had the effect of actually causing the selling climax or buying climax resulting in a short term top or bottom. Look at GTW for example. Guys downgrading the stock, causing the stock to tank over the next few days, creating a short term bottom--stock then goes on to double during the next year--and the analyst leaves his downgrade in place. Simply classic example.