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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15157)	9/17/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

We most assuredly won't stop. But 40-50% declines are worth sidestepping. I don't know if that's what is in store, but I think it is foolish to say it is not a realistic possibility. Given how high the market had been. From here in that event I think the Q would move down way less than the market. But move down, and a lot, nonetheless. If a bad recession came to pass. I exited about 8-9% index down. Glad and better heeled cause I did. More downside, overall than upside now. My view is to play the oscillations, with a bias towards chicken little. Because there is much more downside risk that near or intermediate term upside gain. One of my very favorite rally horses these days is Qcom. Because its downside is largely washed in. And the possibility of earns surprise is large. Nonetheless, the Q is not free of the massive problems in many of the areas in which it sells. Even though telecom, and even cellular telecom, is one of the last things to cut back on, evidently. I'm long Qcom at this moment and precious little else. I have also sold out of the Q, and avoided much of the downdraft from the high sixties -- having first sold this year around 61. But not all the downdraft. I got in just before the last earnings, enjoyed the run up, and waited too long to sell in the big downdraft since. But still avoided most of it in the Q and elsewhere. I am quite sure we are in an overall bear market. Which is a very difficult environment. Some things will rise nonetheless, but are subject to big downdrafts. If Q did not yet sell overseas I would have few doubts about it. It is clearly in a sweet spot in its own internal cycles. But volumes are very important to it here, and esp. I think for its infrastructure business. All in all I think the market has probably overdiscounted the Q's risks. But its a very tough environment, and not a bull one. For at least 4 months I'd say, probably 6-9 months, and conceivably a couple of years. I think that's realistic. Mindfull as I am of the 350 years of American bull market. Doug