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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fortinwit who wrote (24390)	9/17/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

F, Still my sentiment also. FWIW decisionpoint.com BB

To: Fortinwit who wrote (24390)	9/17/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 70976

F., b) AMAT has set their sights on $600M revenue as a qtrly break-even point. I don't remember AMAT saying they would break even with the $600M. I thought that was just their estimate for revenue this qtr. There is also going to be a ???? charge off for the lay offs. Being bearish for quite a while now, my concern is it seems like there are so many bears already which can often be interpreted as a contrarian indicator. However, there has been no panic selling which is also an indicator of a bottom. I have been following mutual fund flow via AMG Data for a couple of years. During the irrational exuberance days, fund inflows were over $20 billion per month, month after month. Per Trim Tabs, August 98 was the first month since Sept 1990 that mutual funds have a net outflow of $2.7 billion, hardly what we would call panic selling. Right now, I believe the street considers all bad news regarding the industry and AMAT to be factored into the price. While it is not going up, it may take some shattering news either AMAT specific or broad market to knock it down. If you are short, there are certainly good reasons to be "optimistic". Bad news may be just around the corner. Just my 2 cents. Ramsey

To: Fortinwit who wrote (24390)	9/20/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I read an article that Applied Materials doesn't see semiconductor equipment demand resuming for six quarters, probably first quarter of 2000. Also, that the growth will not be at previous rates. This would be more bullish for semiconductor companies than chip equipment makers as capacity is removed. Included below is the last or previous bull market's guru's article in Smart Money today. She is recommending AMAT. ABBY COHEN'S FAVORITE STOCKS THE U.S. ECONOMY and stock market received another vote of confidence from Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen. In a conference call Friday, our No.1-ranked pundit reiterated her opinion that the stock market is undervalued and that the U.S. economy is not heading into a recession. Cohen told investors that back in April she believed the stock market was fairly valued and that equities would trade within a range. "We sadly underestimated just how volatile that range would be," she says. But in Cohen's world view, that volatility has turned out to be a good thing for anybody with cash on hand. According to her earnings model, equities are now undervalued by 12% to 15%. At this point even our most bullish guru admits that the U.S. is not immune to the troubles facing the global economy. She now expects U.S. exports to slow down as a result and GDP growth to be affected as well. But she is still optimistic about the earnings picture next year. "Nineteen ninety-nine will be another year of economic and corporate profit growth," Cohen says. Cohen is now adjusting her earnings estimates for 1998 and 1999. She says she needs to increase the level of writeoffs, particularly for banks that have experienced trading losses and for the General Motors (GM) strike. "My assumption is that any changes we do make to the 1999 profit forecast will be fairly modest," she explains. So if stocks are so cheap, what is Cohen buying? She continues to like the financial services, even in light of trading losses associated with the currency crisis in Russia. "However, we expect most of these losses to be transitory events," Cohen says. Bank stocks now trade at the lowest relative P/E ratios seen in several years, she adds. Out of the group she is particularly bullish on Citicorp (CCI), Chase (CMB) and Providian Financial (PVN). In addition to these picks, on August 28 she also recommended clients buy NationsBanc (NB), MBNA (KRB) and high-risk credit card lender CMAC (CMT). The technology sector is also a favorite. She says recent data suggests PC demand is strong and that the U.S. technology companies enjoy strong competitive advantages through proprietary products, services and good distribution. She is recommending Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT) and Dell (DELL). On August 28, she also recommended chip equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT), Compaq (CPQ), America Online (AOL) and Sterling Commerce (SE). Cyclical stocks that will benefit from strong U.S. demand (including retailing and airlines) should also do well in this environment, Cohen says. Her favorites in this area include Federated Department Stores (FD) and Gap (GPS). Again, back in August she mentioned cruise ship operator Carnival (CCL), as well. During the conference call Cohen did make one change to her sector recommendation. Previously, she told clients to underweight energy; now she is recommending investors modestly overweight the sector since energy prices are near a bottom. She likes Texaco (TX) and British Petroleum (BP). And while she didn't mention it on Friday's call, back in August she also liked what she called "reliable growth" companies including Automatic Data Processing (AUD), General Electric (GE) and Millennium Pharmaceutical (MLNM). All of Cohen's stock picks are long term in nature, but you can track them day-by-day on this page. In the meantime, we'll be checking with her next week to see if she changes her earnings outlook for 1998 and next year.