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To: marginmike who wrote (15182)	9/17/1998 11:35:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

Firstly, let me say that I think the severity of the 30's depression is extremely, and I mean that, unlikely. But secondly, let me say that I think the precipating causes of a possible worldwide recession, are more like the late 20's than any more recent period. I think any servere recession in the U.S. is at most an even, and probably less than even, chance. I also think nothing remotely close to an even chance of that is priced into the market now. I think for the past year, and only just BEGINNING to change now, virually all economic commentators have been useless. Because their frame of reference, even often admitted, is "since WWII". Not good enough. Before the Great Depression, perhaps a majority of our business contractions (aka depresssions, or more recently, recessions) occured as a result of over capacity and price deflation. Now, in a global economy of larely unregulated, and increasingly huge, capital flows, we may be closer to the pre WWII world, than the American world that followed it. All of which leave me cautious. Very cautious. Doug