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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (278)	9/18/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Daniel Chisholm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

OT re: Avon I heard that Avon took one of the steepest dives of the Nifty Fifty in the early 70s, and in fact never recovered, even to this day. This certainly makes an interesting story, but I have been unable to verify it. James, would you have access to this information? Was Avon's market cap and/or share price at its peak in the early 70s actually more than it is today? Oh, and while you're at it, what about Disney's performance during the same time period? All that I have is Yahoo!'s large scale log chart, which really squishes things: quote.yahoo.com From that, it looks to me that if you bought at the peak in 1973, it would be 1986 before you broke even (excluding dividends and inflation). Gulp. - Daniel "Go Dell!" ;-)

To: James Clarke who wrote (278)	9/18/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4691

sir, you are wrong about dell. dell is a distribution stock not a computer stock. It has a unique franchise, which is a barrier to entry to the competition-- its business model. go to the dell thread (the facts thread) and look at the Harvard Business Review interview with Michael Dell. You are also wrong about computer industry not growing. It is growing at 15% a year currently and Dell expects to do 3 times that growth every year for the next 3 i believe. The only thing that would keep buffett from buying this stock is that it is not currently undervalued and that we cant see where it will be 15 years from now. but for the next 5 it is outstanding. its return on invested capital is astounding. I think buffett would very much admire the efficiencies of Dell Computer. It will double again in 6 to 9 months barring a world wide depression. After you do a bit of reading, the Harvard article is a must, I'd be interested in your thoughts. best wishes, jhg do you forsee a recession like in the 70s? jhg

To: James Clarke who wrote (278)	9/19/1998 12:25:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4691

dear JJC, avon, dis, DEll, pfe:i m a paranoid value investor. DELL is the largest position in my portfolio. I find it is more work to hold DELL today then it was to first buy it. I could actually argue that DELL might be an undervalued stock but i won't argue that point right now. Rest of my big postions are in csco, msft, intc, pfe. I have read your posts in detail and i would like to get your opinion on companies like AVP (avon) and AXP, DIS? 1. DIS: do you think it will see it's old high within a year? time frame is important. 2. Avon has has lots of international business but i do not think it's in trouble per CEO comments on NBR. but the stock is being hammered by analysts. so do we belive ceo or analysts? Please read the follwing info i have collected on Avon. exchange2000.com 3. does buffet hold PFE? and how can one can get a list of stocks he holds? i belive there was a website for it. thx. very much in advance. Jumping out of high tech is a big step for me but i see this down turn as an oppurtunity in the market for me to diversify.