To: John Hunt who wrote (16436 ) 9/18/1998 7:03:00 AM From: Link Lady Respond to of 18056
Will it come to higher interest rates? 09/18 4:53A (DJ) =Signs Of G 7 Crisis Efforts Offering Little Cheer To Asia Story 0674 =Signs Of G 7/Efforts/Asia -3: 'Wag The Economy' For months, Cho Dong-chuel, an economist at the Korea Development Institute in Seoul, has been calling for the Fed to address Asia's problems by lowering interest rates. But he cautions there limits on what can be spurred by the 'central bank of the world.' Lower rates in the U.S. could ensure that the U.S. market remains out of recession, lift the yen's exchange rate and help spread capital allocation more broadly than the U.S., but the benefits would need to be combined with other efforts. 'I never thought this would solve all the problems of Asian countries,' he said. 'Japan should play some role here, but if the U.S. helps Japan, that would help other Asian countries, as well,' Cho said. The problems in Japan extend through the region as its banks withdraw credit from other countries, while its appetite for imported goods and commodities keeps prices low. Some analysts are cynical about Clinton's strategy in mustering his G 7 counterparts to action and said they suspect Asia's interests aren't really at the forefront of Clinton's new focus. The efforts have been jokingly labeled 'Wag the Economy' at securities firm ABN-Amro Asia Ltd., for example. Economists there said the president looks like he is stoking the sense of crisis to squelch pressure to remove him over his sex scandal, in the same way this year's Hollywood movie 'Wag The Dog' depicted how a fictional president in similar circumstances staged a war. Eugene Galbraith, ABN-Amro's head of Asian research, said Clinton has stepped up his rhetoric because 'political leaders must be seen to be doing something to improve the situation.' But Galbraith said the president's efforts don't 'move the ball much.' Plus, Galbraith added that he is 'disturbed' that the Fed's independence may be being undermined by Clinton's call for 'concerted steps to spur growth.' (MORE) DOW JONES NEWS 09 -18 -98 05:07 AM Galbraith said he wants the U.S. and other G 7 officials to use some 'original thought' and pressure money center banks to accept losses on their bad loans in the region in order to reduce the burdens through the region, rather than continuing to fall back on the International Monetary Fund to ensure risky credits remain recoverable. Kim, at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, however, said he sees it the other way, saying Asian governments need to restructure banking systems by nationalizing debts. He said, 'Let's face it, where have you seen a banking crisis where the taxpayers weren't stuck with the bill?' Meanwhile, Simon Ogus, Warburg Dillon Read's economist in Hong Kong, said that containing the crisis is purely the U.S.'s responsibility at this point. He went so far as to warn that some type of military conflict in Asia is inevitable within six months without attention from the U.S. that really eases the pain. He said he favors radical inflation-generation in the U.S, not the short-term spike in stocks that a rate cut would spark there. 'It's a supply-of-money, not a cost-of-money issue in the world at the moment,' he said. 'The Fed can print as much money as the world requires.' Ogus said at a conference this week that the U.S. should resist the temptation of 'throwing plaster at the problem' and bailing out Brazil through the IMF. A collapse of the Brazilian economy would pave the way toward the radical inflation Ogus said is urgently needed. 'If that occurs, it will finally give the wake up call to the Europeans and Americans that really Asia's problems are their problems. And once it destroys the irrational exuberance in those economies it basically gives Greenspan the room to go to that kind of policy response,' said Ogus.