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To: flickerful who wrote (53172)	9/18/1998 6:45:00 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Fri 12:39 Cent. European Time DAX 4.637,09 -32,42 (-0,69%) CDAX 400,21 -3,43 (-0,85%) CAC 40 3.470,98 -54,28 (-1,54%) FTSE 100 5.100,10 -32,80 (-0,64%) Nikkei 13.983,10 124,00 (+0,89%) STOXX 50 2.782,79 -43,43 (-1,54%) 4600 seems to hold for the moment. No divergence to be seen between floor, XETRA, future. Dont know the volume. SAP, Siemens keep bleeding. see more under finanzen.yahoo.de (you'll need Eng-German vocabulary;)

To: flickerful who wrote (53172)	9/18/1998 8:15:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE ----------------------- Just want to take some time to make somes sense of this market as objectively as possible. Beginning yesterday a short-term(1-5 DAYS) down trend has begun, and it appears the the DOW will now test the 7700 support area(upward trendline). If 7700 holds it would produce a higher low and imply a higher high. If 7700 does not hold and we retest 7500 and 7500 holds, that would be a confirmation of a range trading trend. And a break of 7500 would imply a break of 7400. The 7700 figure is only an estimate since I have not yet finished my research. According to Jerry Favors, the average rebound after a major dump is 62%. Using the intraday highs of 8/25 at 8689 as the top of this pullback and 7401 as the bottom, the total decline was 1288 points. We got as high as 8101 on WED, so the rebound was 54%, slightly below the norm. To compare, after the OCT 97 dump the immediate rebound was slightly above 70% in only 6 days, and after that dump and 2 months of range trading the market took off to new highs. Only based on rebound strength it is fair to conclude that this rebound, is weaker than the OCT 97 rebound; therefore there is no evidence from this specific rebound that the market will reverse to an uptrend. On the other hand it was not so weak to imply that the DOW will set LOWER LOWS. Please keep in mind that this specific comment is based on the specific issue of this specific rebound and the strength of this specific rebound, not other technical issues. Was I specific enough. ggggggggggggggg The 7400 bottom was never tested yet, but a support line at 7500 developed and was tested on 3 different occassions. If I recall correctly on a intraday chart, 7500 was tested 4 times and it held. Some may discount it but please keep in mind that 7500 is a HIGHER LOW, which is a positive for the market and slightly implies that 7400 may have been the bottom. Such needs alot more confirmation, but it is still a slight positive. During this rebound 2 minor resitance lines at 7950 and 8032 were pierced to the upside. This is also a slight positive for the market. Please keep in mind that this rebound was not great and slightly below the average rebound of 62%, so the breaking of thise 2 specific resistance lines is not that important, but is still a very slight positive for the market. So far a DOUBLE TOP was formed at 8095, which was an import resistance line. Such action with the point that the rebound being slightly average implies that we are still in trading range on the up side. Now the test will come to see how low we go on this forthcoming pullback. During this rebound, the market internals did improve, but did not improve dramatically. It definitely did not improve to the same level the rebound after the OCT dump. The market internals are confirming that this rebound was not as strong as the OCT 97 rebound. The internals do confirm that the market is still weak, which implies that LOWER LOWS are still possible, so this is a slight negative for the market Have checked several indexes and noticed that for some of the indexes the downward trendline has been pierced to the upside. This is also a slight positive for the market, but still needs alot of confirmation. There is a possible HEAD and SHOULDER pattern starting to appear on the daily DOW chart, but of course this requires alot of confirmation, but still a very slight negative for the market. Fibinocci numbers, per my calculation shows a downside potential to 6600 on the DOW. This is just a statement/projection of potential downside, not to be taken as a negative concerning immediate market movement/direction. According to my technicals, it is not all doom and gloom, at least not just yet. A break of 7500 would imply a break of 7400, and if 7400 does break then thats a huge negative for the market and all the positives mentioned above would basicly be negated. One of the keys to watch as we head down during this short-term pullback is the market internals, especially the NEW HIGHS/LOWS. If we start getting back to 1000-1200 range on the NEW LOWS, that would strongly imply that the market could make NEW LOWS and break 7400 to the downside. I believe that not untill we break the 200 day moving average to the upside convincingly will there be a good confirmation that this correction is over. The 200 day MA is around 8500, but I did also say to convincingly break it. There is also a very important resistance area in the 8700-8750 range. So for now I would not say that we are out of the woods until we get to the 8500-8750 range. As we get closer will then narrow the target. Please understand that even though we rebounded 700 points we are still far from safety, especially in a market that can move 200-300 points in a day. For those who read some of my previous posts stating that it would be bad for the market to continue much higher on the recent rebound, I was glad to see the market pull back yesterday. Its that RUBBER BAND,GUITAR THEORY of mine. I believed that if we had continued substantially higher, the downside momentum would intensify once it started and increase the probability of breaking the 7400 support. To recap, it is not total DOOM and GLOOM, but at the same time we are not out of the woods yet. I hope I made some sense from a technical basis. I will allow others to discuss the fundamentals/news. Seeya