Somewhat off-topic, but with related food for thought. Interested in other's thoughts on the future of enterprise NOS software (pricing), as well as the potential of NDS to add revenue to the Novell stream. Dr. Eric Schmidt also was in attendance at this event. Anyone with news (text) on his presentation (vision)? Interesting that Andreessen sees ISP's as the business of choice. Well someone's got to develop the NOS to manage all those networks! =;-) TIA, QuadK
Netscape's Andreessen Predicts Free PCs to Boost Internet Use
Lake Tahoe, California, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Personal computers will be free soon,
as companies give the machines away to lure Internet users, according to Marc
Andreessen, executive vice president at Netscape Communications Corp.
PC prices are falling rapidly as manufacturers compete for sales. Many machines are
available below $1,000, compared with $1,500 to $2,000 little more than 18 months
ago. National Semiconductor Corp. is trying to build chips for a PC that Chief Executive
Brian Halla says will cost well below $500.
''We are on the way to the free PC,'' said Andreessen, comparing the future of PCs to
cellular phones, many of which are given away or sold cheaply to lure subscribers to
mobile phone service. The money will be made on providing Internet service over the
PCs, Andreessen said, not on the boxes themselves.
Andreessen, who invented the technology for Internet browsers, was one of many
industry leaders and pundits trying to predict the future at writer and technology
prognosticator George Gilder's annual Telecosm Conference, which deals mostly with
the future of computer networking and telecommunications.
Among the other predictions from attendees: that cable television will prove to be the
best way to get Internet service into homes and that 3Com Corp.'s Palm III personal
organizer could one day threaten the personal computer with extinction.
Andreessen, speaking late last night, made some of the boldest assertions about the
future. He predicted the ''death of the consumer software industry'' as more programs
become free over the Internet. Netscape, he said, learned this lesson the ''hard way''
after rival Microsoft Corp. started giving away its Internet Explorer browser, forcing
Netscape to do the same with its own Navigator browser, the industry's pioneer.
Must-See Software
Without better profits to entice software firms, there will be no new, must-have software
that will drive sales of more advanced personal computers, Andreessen said.
''There's no new software for taking advantage of the next generation of
microprocessors,'' Andreessen said.
It would be bad for Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of microprocessors, if
Andreessen is correct. The company relies on having many of its customers buy the
latest, greatest chips to keep prices and profit margin high.
If Andreessen, one of the founders of Netscape, were to start a company today, he said
it wouldn't be a software company. Rather, he would launch an Internet service
provider. Those firms bill customers monthly for access to the Internet.
Another seer, Associate Professor Clayton Christensen of the Harvard Business School,
also had a dark outlook on PCs. In a speech to participants that was piped in live via
digital video- conferencing technology, Christensen warned that the Palm III personal
organizer, and devices like it, present a threat to PCs.
Niche Market
Like other ''disruptive technologies,'' the Palm and its predecessors have incubated in a
small niche market, where they have added features to become more powerful,
Christensen said. The PC did the same thing when older, more powerful minicomputers
dominated in the 1980s, he said. Eventually, PCs became more powerful, replacing
minicomputers and leading to the demise of companies such as Digital Equipment Corp.
Most other predictions at the Gilder conference concerned ''bandwidth,'' or the capacity
to pump information through phone lines, fiber-optic cable, wireless phones and satellite
signals.
20:29:21 09/17/1998 |
