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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tonyt who wrote (25516)	9/18/1998 6:26:00 PM
From: celeryroot.com	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

The problem there is.....how does one then explain Isip,Vicl, Imnr,Axph, Mcde, Xoma, Agph,Pcyc, etc. They all have tanked.Also, have not recovered. It is not only Ligand

To: tonyt who wrote (25516)	9/18/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

>> Historically, LGND moved up in anticipation of good news, >> but always fell back after the news was released. >>I don't recall LGND ever releasing bad news, so why has it tanked? Looks to me like the recently released 2Q Report sec.yahoo.com was bad news -- particularly (1) their weaker than expected (IMO) cash position: "Working capital decreased to $32.7 million as of June 30, 1998, from $62.4 million at the end of 1997.The decrease in working capital resulted from a decrease in cash due to increases in clinical trials and product development expenses in late 1997, increased selling expenses, semi-annual interest payments due on convertible subordinated debentures and convertible notes offset by a decrease in accrued liabilities from year end 1997. For the same reasons, cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments and restricted cash decreased to $52.0 million at June 30, 1998 from $86.3 million at December 31, 1997." --------- and (2) the cloud due to the coming $37million due for ONTAK, possibly paid for with stock depressed by a bear market: "The merger agreement also calls for an additional $37 million payment in cash and/or Company Common Stock, at the Company's option, to be paid six months after the date of receipt of final U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") clearance to market ONTAK(TM). ----------------------------------------------------------------- >> Now that they [Allergan and Falleron] have unloaded large positions, >> I would think that the stock should have recovered, but it hasn't. The 3 biotechs I've been tracking have all recovered somewhat from their RECENT lows , LGND less than the other two. SYMB $R-Low $Sept 18 --- (closing prices) Fairly parallel movement, I'd say ... ---- ISIP 7 01/16 10.375 ------- had good news on 8/27 (NDA), and 9/16 Milestone Pmt VIcl 7 21/32 10.500 Lgnd 5 03/04 07.125 ------- has ONTAK financing cloud ------------------------------------------------------------------ Question - Can hype on Internet boards sufficiently impact a stock, enough to move the quantities sold by Allergan and Falleron ? Of course it's possible. But I doubt it. In fact, I've been afraid that the type of hype lately roaring over the web might cause such embarrassment to Ligand, that it might scare off serious investors. True, neither do I believe Kennedy was shot by a lone assassin. But, for perspective --- Ligand, after all, is just a pre-profit biotech, whereas --- Kennedy was a Yankee President riding in an open car over a predictable route in the South, in one of the most volatile, hate-laden periods of American history. --------------------------------------------------------------- My conclusion: I'm HOPING for Ligand to weather the ONTAK payment in decent financial shape, at which time investor confidence will recover, along with the stock price. I'm hoping the Clinton turmoil will subside by the time the Ontak payment is due. But, being a bear, and anticipating plenty of emerging-market turmoil to impact our own economy, well ... I'm not expecting a huge pop in LGND anytime soon. Just my .02 Regards, Cheryl

To: tonyt who wrote (25516)	9/19/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 32384

>>so why has it tanked?<< tony, the avg dan diego biotech company is down approximately 60%. we are in one of those "shoot 'em all and let god sort 'em out mentalities." i'm mostly long in the small cap arena and let me tell you, it has been ROUGH on EVERY stock i own. as an aside, lgnd has slightly recovered from its lows almost in lockstep with other bios and small caps. that being said, lgnd does have some individual problems. was lgnd pumped to allow some to dump? possibly. surely lgnd is not seen as the stock with the midas touch as it has tanked with everyone else. was every other bio with avg losses in price hyped so insiders can sell? maybe, but much harder to believe. imho, this is a very weak market for illiquid, small/medium and risky companies. we have our own "nifty fifty," imho. stay away from everything else. if the market stays bad then nda approvals may only be enough to keep us even, if that. when, if... the bios bounce back it will be interesting to see if lgnd does so with at least as much zeal. boy, i'd love to have enough cash to buy a serious position in a basket of bios. cegem genzl and gztc are on my list. they look cheap w/ great prospects for profitibility, imho. i already bought my lgndw and don't plan on buying more.