Netware 5 release Creates An Opportunity For Novell -- VARs Have Solid Expectations For Network Operating System Sales
John Roberts
New York -- With the release of NetWare 5 last week, Novell Inc., Provo, Utah, has an opportunity to expand its presence not only in the enterprise market but among small and midsize companies as well, according to data from the August CRN/Ruzinsky Research reseller software poll.
Resellers' expectations of network operating system (NOS) software sales to small and midsize companies in the September to November period are solid, though not quite where they were a year ago. Fifty-five percent of the 162 resellers surveyed expect to see sales increase at least 6 percent over the period, with nearly a quarter expecting the gain to exceed 10 percent.
Are small-business customers likely to hold off on spending in this category in light of the delay in the release of Windows NT 5.0? If so, it has not happened yet, some resellers said.
Pat Gallagher, president of Data Logic Systems Inc., a reseller in Menomonee Falls, Wis., said he does not expect a drop in operating system sales, at least during the next three months, citing the fact that companies often make spending and budget plans well in advance.
In addition, a higher percentage of resellers now are citing network operating systems as their single best-selling software category. In August, this figure was 30 percent, up from 24 percent in July and 22 percent in August 1997.
This puts network operating systems second only to office productivity software on the best-selling category list.
Novell could use a lift in this market. Over the past year, more than twice as many resellers have listed Microsoft Corp., Redmond, Wash., as their best-selling NOS vendor compared with Novell. This gap has widened in recent months. According to survey data, 76 percent of resellers last month cited Microsoft, compared with 18 percent citing Novell.
Moreover, 86 percent of resellers said they are deploying client/server applications on Windows NT, more than double the 34 percent that said they are deploying on NetWare. In the past year, the figure for Windows NT has risen, while the percentage has fallen for NetWare.
Tom White, owner of Software Marketplace, a VAR in Miami Lakes, Fla., said he has no particular bias in favor of Windows NT, but uses the system when clients want more than file and print services, and are not under budgetary constraints.
Among other survey results, resellers expect more robust sales of groupware over the September-November period than at almost any other time in the past year.
Forty-four percent of resellers surveyed in August expected a sales gain of at least 6 percent over the following three months. This is up from 39 percent in July, 36 percent in June and 40 percent in the August 1997 survey. Microsoft will be the main beneficiary if these expectations are realized. Last month, 50 percent of resellers said Microsoft was their best-selling groupware vendor, the highest figure recorded for this vendor. IBM Corp.'s Lotus subsidiary was cited by 24 percent of resellers, while Novell was next at 16 percent.
Microsoft's lead also continues to widen over its rivals in categories such as office-productivity software and Web-server software, according to the survey results.
Electronic commerce and Web security are two other categories where resellers expect strong sales growth in the near term. For example, 68 percent of resellers expect an increase of at least 6 percent in E-commerce software sales over the September to November period, with more than a quarter expecting the gain to exceed 10 percent. For Web-security software, 72 percent of resellers expect sales growth of at least 6 percent over the period.
Microsoft is battling Netscape Communications Corp., Mountain View, Calif., for the top spot on the best-selling list in the E-commerce arena. In August, 33 percent of resellers each cited Microsoft and Netscape as the manufacturer of their best-selling E-commerce software.
Finally, 22 percent of resellers surveyed last month reported their clients were year 2000-compliant. This is slightly higher than the 20 percent figure in the July survey. Another 71 percent of resellers, however, expect their clients will be compliant before the year 2000. Only 7 percent said customers will not be compliant before the deadline.
Given these results, it is not surprising that 56 percent of resellers surveyed in August expect their year 2000-related revenue will increase over the next three months compared with the previous three months.
But as year 2000 compliance increases, the percentage of resellers expecting higher sales growth is falling; the August figure of 56 percent was down from a 59 percent reading in July.
techweb.com |
