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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaperChase who wrote (8316)	9/19/1998 12:54:00 AM
From: David Wise	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10479

Credible companies DO trade at these levels. I was looking at Cisco or Gateway or some big one that was .36 cents about 10 years ago. Then I remember when Iomega was $1.00 just 3 1/2 years ago. Pre-splits, Iomega was probably about .20. But the actual price was $1.00, not counting splits, then went as high as $150 +. The trick is to find a company that you can have enough confidence in to hold on through short selling, short lying, market downturns and more shorts lying. Even then, it is very hard for a small company to take on the giant, entrenched companies. Craig mentioned AMD as not having a chance against Intel. Well, I don't own any stock, but I think they're on the right track. I see more and more sales advertising the AMD chip "inside". Intel has had to respond by lowering prices dramatically. Fortunately, there are laws to prevent an Intel from selling at less than cost just to run a newcomer out of business. His major premise is that large, existing companies have all the pull with suppliers and can withstand competition due to lower costs. Minor premise is that newcomers can't take advantage of the economies of scale, etc., and his conclusion is that the giants will survive while the newcomers will fail. This is often true. But, 1) there are limits to price concessions even Intel can receive, 2)Sometimes big gets in the way of efficient, and when this happens, the advantage is actually to the slim newcomer, 3) The Intels are more likely to be global businesses with more exposure to crashes abroad, and 4)Monopolistic practices that reach the price fixing or manipulative distribution practices sometimes bring on the wrath of the DOJ. I think AMD has a very bright future for anyone with long patience. And it is true that they have to be able to price their products at a profitable level to survive long term. But it is not a given that, due to Intel's size, AMD can not compete. Ditto for Osicom, especially when the assumption that many companies can provide a DWDM short haul product right now is wrong!