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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2245)	9/19/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 2754

During June, July and early August, the group average sort of stayed within a "trading range". Then after the week closing 8/7/98, it has been in a real down trend. With the close on Friday, this has been a 6 week period. If a person had bet on the long side for any stock on 8/7, there has been disappointment. This shows how important it is to be on the "right side of the market". No matter which stock was picked, there was bound to be disappointment. During this 6 week period, the group average is down 30 percent. All stocks in the group are down with the exception of PHTN. 08/07/98 09/18/98 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE PHTN Photon Dynamics 2.94 3.00 2 CFMT CFM Technologies 8.38 8.00 -5 ETEC Etec System 34.38 30.00 -13 BRKS Brooks Automation 10.38 8.88 -14 TER Teradyne 24.44 20.44 -16 COHU Cohu 21.25 17.75 -16 ATMI ATMI Inc 17.91 14.44 -19 VECO Veeco Instruments 33.50 26.88 -20 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 20.88 16.63 -20 SMTL Semitool 8.13 6.44 -21 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 17.13 13.44 -22 HELX Helix Technology 13.00 9.94 -24 EGLS Electroglas 12.25 9.25 -24 PRIA Pri Automation 15.44 11.63 -25 SFLX Smartflex Systems 7.75 5.81 -25 CMOS Credence Systems 19.31 14.44 -25 WJ Watkins Johnson 24.13 17.88 -26 NANO Nanometrics 7.75 5.63 -27 MASK Align-Rite International 14.25 10.07 -29 AMAT Applied Materials 35.13 24.50 -30 DPMI Dupont Photomasks 34.06 23.75 -30 MICN Micrion 8.63 6.00 -30 KLAC KLA Instruments 32.31 22.38 -31 FSII FSI International 8.75 6.06 -31 PLAB Photronics 20.13 13.84 -31 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 10.69 7.25 -32 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 8.13 5.50 -32 LTXX LTX 2.75 1.81 -34 TGAL Tegal 3.75 2.31 -38 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 14.75 8.81 -40 CYMI Cymer 17.13 10.00 -42 NVLS Novellus Systems 43.06 24.00 -44 MTSN Mattson Technology 5.88 3.25 -45 ASEC Aseco 3.13 1.72 -45 ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 29.75 16.13 -46 GSNX Gasonics 7.13 3.81 -47 SFAM SpeedFAM 18.50 9.88 -47 ASYT Asyst Technologies 14.88 7.81 -48 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 9.88 5.13 -48 LRCX Lam Research 19.69 10.06 -49 AFLX Adflex Solutions 7.50 3.00 -60 TOTALS 669 468 -30

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2245)	9/19/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2754

Having presented the down side in the previous post, let's balance that with a six week period in the spring and summer of 1997. I chose one that started on 7/11/97. The group average had been climbing steadily each week since 4/25/97 and was still growing strong. Going back and reading some of the posts for nearly any stock during that period gives a sense of how the "good times" were rolling on. It was just onward and upward - most people were seeing their stock values improving 2 to 5 percent per week. Wouldn't be long until everyone was rich. The 6 weeks presented shows a group gain of 26 percent - an average of 4.3 percent per week. The spread was a 73 percent gain for CMOS to a 24 percent loss for WFR. Only 2 stocks lost money during this period, WFR and SVGI. The average gain per week for CMOS was 12.2 percent. My, how things can change over a short period of time. Again, like the last post, pick almost any stock, go long, and money began flowing in when the group was perceived in a good light. It would be nice to see this situation return, but it looks like it is going to be quite awhile yet before this happens. 7/11/97 08/22/97 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE CMOS Credence Systems 30.00 51.88 73 BRKS Brooks Automation 22.25 36.50 64 CYMI Cymer 30.63 48.75 59 ETEC Etec System 40.75 62.94 54 ASYT Asyst Technologies 23.38 35.88 53 NANO Nanometrics 7.25 10.75 48 LRCX Lam Research 46.75 65.63 40 ASEC Aseco 12.88 18.00 40 VECO Veeco Instruments 41.50 55.75 34 DPMI Dupont Photomasks 50.00 67.00 34 HELX Helix Technology 23.88 31.88 34 KLAC KLA Instruments 56.31 74.63 33 COHU Cohu 35.75 47.13 32 AFLX Adflex Solutions 18.88 24.75 31 EGLS Electroglas 25.00 32.75 31 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 39.25 51.00 30 PRIA Pri Automation 42.88 55.50 29 SFAM SpeedFAM 40.75 52.38 29 AMAT Applied Materials 39.63 50.82 28 PLAB Photronics 24.38 30.88 27 SMTL Semitool 15.00 18.88 26 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 25.00 30.88 24 ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 38.16 46.44 22 MICN Micrion 17.75 21.50 21 MASK Align-Rite International 13.63 16.50 21 NVLS Novellus Systems 47.97 57.81 21 TGAL Tegal 7.13 8.38 17 TER Teradyne 47.38 54.00 14 LTXX LTX 6.81 7.63 12 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 13.75 15.25 11 MTSN Mattson Technology 13.13 14.50 10 WJ Watkins Johnson 32.25 35.25 9 SFLX Smartflex Systems 10.25 11.13 9 FSII FSI International 17.25 18.56 8 ATMI ATMI Inc 27.75 29.00 5 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 26.13 26.75 2 CFMT CFM Technologies 29.00 29.50 2 PHTN Photon Dynamics 7.50 7.63 2 GSNX Gasonics 17.50 17.44 0 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 34.00 33.00 -3 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 36.31 27.69 -24 TOTALS 1136 1432 26