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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip518 who wrote (13838)	9/19/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Scott Moore	Respond to of 18691

The I foresee it that the Japanese equivalent of the "no-bull" Bill Reidman types will get in and expose exactly how much bad debt there is and if it is anywhere like our own Resolution Trust Corp. then the bad debt could be actually 200-300% higher. Initially I believe it was 300% higher, but the RTC backed off later when they found out they drove some of the medium lenders like Glendale S&L out of business too soon, as they probably would have recovered on their own (lawsuit may still be pending between Glendale and RTC). So the new question is, what will happen if the bad debt figure is really 200+% of what is reported now?

To: Kip518 who wrote (13838)	9/20/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Kip, I read that Japanese bad debts are $ 1.1 trillion (30% of GDP)which is probably still an underestimation. There are suggestions from the West that they inflate their way out of their recession/depression. The Slickster, Soros, Greenspan, Rubin and Buffet have given enough warnings in the last couple of weeks that when the Sheeple get trampled in panic selling they will have only themselves to blame. While the felon in the White House fiddles, and the Sheeple of this country bah bah in support, the Tsunami is fast approaching. I think it's time to tape over my CNBC "Dow 9,000" tape with the Slicksters grand jury testimony. This time around I'll enjoy drinking my bud and eating my poptarts much more. Tick, tick, tick.

To: Kip518 who wrote (13838)	9/20/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Kip, I think you have got it a bit twisted. Follows is a quote from the link you posted; "Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. rose 28.4 percent in August from the same month the previous year, the 23rd straight increase. Exports to the U.S. rose 15.3 percent and imports rose 9.2 percent. U.S.-bound exports of automobiles and steel rose the most." Japans total trade surplus is down because of the crappy demand in the Asean (thai, mal, phils etc...)counrties, however the surplus with the US is on the rise (strong dollar, weak Japanease econ and strong US econ)