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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert K. who wrote (7257)	9/19/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

Bob, you sometimes comment on the overall market. While it is difficult for me to know if my following comments are self serving I think bioteck stocks are in a great position almost regardless of what happens to the rest of the market. Consolidation in many industries occurs when share price have been beaten down to exceptionally low levels. Rio Tinto Zinc management had some interesting comments on this regarding Australian mineral companies. Amber Oil in Canada is getting a buyout bid at a premium to market of over 50%. Neither minerals nor energy appear set for a quick rebound and yet some of the companies are targets. The biotech industry is an intellectual property industry and not a commodity one so a rebound does not depend at all on an increased demand due to an economic pick up. Aside from the uncertainty factor Asia, Russia and Latin America have little to do with prospects for biotechs. But the fact that makes me most convinced that this is the place to be is DuPonts stated intentions to redeploy billions into drugs and biotechs, Mercks cash hoard for partnerships and now Chirons receipt of over a billion from Bayer. While I expect these funds will mainly flow to larger companies with earnings or at least sales the events produced by announcements of the deals should generated interest in the entire sector. It seems the move to biotechs has already begun even though I would say it began with crop genetic companies. Dow has picked up the rest of Mycogen and almost all the seed companies have been spoken for. Montsanto, once a supposed target of DuPont, has been grabbed by AHP. Could be wrong but with all the cash designated for investment, the current deals already done and the desperation of existing companies to find financing should mean more buyouts and mergers in the not so distant future. All opinion, and not implying that any of this will help XOMA.

To: Robert K. who wrote (7257)	9/21/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Attempting to learn even more about DSMBs. Sometimes called other names such as Independent Safety Monitoring Board and etc. Implications of an early halt mean a company will have to notify all its centers to stop the trials. I think there might be some contractual time period even if it is short to permit an orderly halt and to properly attend to patients already involved in the process. Note that from the Searle experience I can not tell if the FDA was also notified prior to the decision to halt. EXCERPT Searle acted on the recommendations of the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board and independent Executive Committee. The study, involving 195 centers in 15 countries, had been expected to continue until December 1999. The Executive Committee chairman has contacted the primary clinical investigators and explained the recommendation to end the trial due to the demonstrated beneficial effec