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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (7305)	9/19/1998 11:41:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 93625

Some more RMBS thoughts... MileHigh ===================== September 21, 1998, Issue: 1127 Section: Viewpoints -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tips for avoiding millennium angst Corinne Bernstein Are we there yet? "Soon" was always the answer my parents would give me and their other antsy children on long road trips. It's only natural to want instant gratification. But things don't always happen according to schedule. So don't expect the new millennium to bring about a technological and market metamorphosis. Clearly, a wealth of new designs and a business boom would provide an auspicious opening for the new decade, indeed, the new century. Nobody likes a naysayer, but I can't help wondering if the industry is just a little too euphoric about the new era. Everything won't fall into place at once. Interestingly enough, late 1999 or early 2000 is roughly when executives-in markets ranging from DRAMs to passive components-expect business to improve. It's a funny coincidence that demand is due to pick up just in time for the new century. On the other hand, component companies that have grappled with oversupply and overcapacity for approximately two years believe it's about time for an upturn. There's even talk that the inventory overhang at PC OEMs is starting to clear up, though there is some disagreement among market trackers as to whether this is evidence of an uptick. PCs will still be ubiquitous at the turn of the century and continue to drive electronics-industry demand. I don't see any barn burners that would threaten the PC market's dominance, although I do see some compelling communications and consumer technologies that will help fuel growth. Don't discount macroeconomics. Financial troubles in Korea and Japan are too deep-rooted to disappear overnight. Until these problems are resolved-and it could take a few years-their impact will keep rippling through the electronics industry. On the technology front, there are intriguing developments, such as integrated passive devices and system-on-a-chip designs, and we will hear more about them in the coming months. The extent to which passive- and active-component companies can pack an increasing number of functions into a single device is mind-boggling, but I don't expect IPDs or SOCs to be pervasive a year from now. Expect surprises, even in markets with well outlined roadmaps, and question even those events that seem likely to happen. Will the rollout of Direct RDRAM slated for mid-1999 be successful, for example? How will this affect memory makers' and their customers' product mixes? And what about prices? Favorable pricing impacts not only top and bottom lines but can spur the acceptance of new technology. It's best to prepare for the millennium with your eyes open. But don't be disappointed if a pivotal event doesn't happen until 2002 or even 2005. We're almost there. -Corinne Bernstein (cbernste@cmp.com) is senior managing editor at EBN. Copyright r 1998 CMP Media Inc