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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6956)	9/19/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

Moore's Law states that transistor density doubles every 18 months at no additional cost. New system architectures result from Moore's Law, rather than contribute to it. Now, Moore's Law only defines what is technologically possible. It doesn't say anything about market dynamics. The success of the chip industry to this point is based on (a) Moore's Law and (b) the ability of software and system designers to find new uses for all those transistors. A lot of people, including me, have suggested that there's no reason for people to buy the next generation PC. The good news is that slower growth for PCs doesn't mean that driver (b) is breaking down. As transistors get cheaper, they create new markets for themselves, and those markets are difficult to predict in advance. Remember how IBM ignored PCs at first because they couldn't imagine a large enough market? That's a long answer to a short question. The short answer is that we don't know what the next killer apps will be, but it's fairly certain that something will emerge. See news.semiconductoronline.com for a more detailed discussion. Katherine