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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3343)	9/19/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Thanks for all the technical stuff, for the average investor who cannot understand exactly what all these tachnical facts lead, in your opinion, is Ciena a good investment at this price, and will someone pick this baby up at a premium ...

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3343)	9/19/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

>>The other problem as an analyst once said, "their products are too good." The reasoning on this is once it is in place, there is enough bandwidth for that fiber.<< The quality of the installed fiber plant, and the quality of the fiber that is now being installed has a marked effect on what can be done in the wavelength multiplicity arena. Mother Nature plays a fundamental role here. I don't know how to do the business model of sheer fiber multiplicity vs. quality fiber, but suffice it to say, the factors like Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE), Polarization Dispersion and myriads of others, limit the effective use of a fiber at higher rates (OC-192), and at tighter wavelength spacings. The rule, gain*bandwidth=constant, is universal. So, the advances in the state of the art require better fiber, like the NZ-DSF (LEAF) fiber from Corning, and similar from Lucent, and maybe others. (NZ-DSF=NonZero Dispersion Shifted Fiber, a neat innovation to allow tighter wavelength spacings and higher optical power as is needed in DWDM, and the opening of other DWDM wavelength bands). The newer carriers who are currently building (LVLT, Williams and others) are installing NZ-DSF, an absolute necessity. I'm certain they have done the business model, more-is-better vs. fewer-high-quality. I'd reserve the upwardly mobile options myself. Back to CIEN-- They are right in the middle of innovation (but not fiber--just the equipment that drives it). CIEN got screwed and they don't deserve what happened to them.

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3343)	9/20/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 12623

You made an interesting, and increasingly-familiar, comment: >>The other problem as an analyst once said, "their products are too good." The reasoning on this is once it is in place, there is enough bandwidth for that fiber.<< I'm not so sure I'd agree with that analyst entirely. Of course, when a strand is of inferior, or inappropriate, or outdated design, he may be right. But if we concern ourselves with the newer designs of glass manifesting today and in the recent past, I'd have to take some exceptions and note some qualifications. Frank, I was duly impressed with your post and knowledge in this area. I have no where near the understanding to agree or disagree. However, What is your opinion on the future of the stock CIEN? Secondly, if you do not mind answering, what type of engineer are you? Glenn