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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (692)	9/19/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

I don't know about the best investment - there is a lot of risk in Russia which is absent in the US (the risk side was very well described here by PTB). Russian market is not like US in the 30-s - the difference is , there was no economic boom, although there was speculation. Valuations were not so high at the peak, now they are trashed. It seems there are a few positive moments happening, the most obvious is political stabilization (not that there is stability). The market is dead. I don't know how it goes down - the shares are not traded, probably because of highly liquid stocks like Lukoil or Rostelecom. It is like an option play with no expiration date. If Russia comes out of trouble, you are likely to have very high multiples of your initial investment. If not - you can loose it all. Oil price jump should help Russia. I could buy a piece of Russian corrupt industries for less than 10 billion overall market cap, considering that it's a country of 150 million. What if US dollar slides, the safe heaven of heavens (and an overpriced stock market)? Russians have , what, $200 bln? in foreign accounts? $80 billion in mattresses? What if they decide to invest some of that?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (692)	9/20/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1301

<<If you can get the currency diving and capital flight increasing, you bust the country and make easy money on the short side.>> I'm rooting for Malaysia to show the IMF and all these appalled economists that there is a solution other than borrowing from the IMF and going into a death spiral. Will be interesting to see what kind of capital controls the Russians come up with and whether it does for their stocks what it did for Malaysia.