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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (17206)	9/19/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Jach, That's a joke. You're telling us that your research into CSCO, COMS, ASND, and FORE told you that they would outperform CSCO in the next 10 days. You're research into these stocks was so good that it not only predicted their movement based on fundamentals, but also how the overall economy, foreign issues,and political issues would effect each of these stocks. Your research is so good that you can even predict short term movements in stocks. WOW! You shouldn't be wasting your time here - you should be sharing this with Faber!!! ANother point, it doesn't take rocket scientist to see that FORE (trading nearly 30% off its 52 week high), COMS (trading at nearly 40% off its 52 week high), and ASND (trading at 20% off its 52 week high) have more short term upside than CSCO (trading at only 15% off its 52 week high). However much of this upside is based upon takeover rumors only. If they don't happen then CSCO will do much better - even short term. There is easily 10% of speculative value built into each ASND, COMS and FORE. In order to elminate this speculative value you have to look at a longer term picture..... Let me help you out. Over the past 100 days charts.techstocks.com 50 weeks charts.techstocks.com 30 months charts.techstocks.com Geez, that last one... it would appear that had you held COMS, ASND, or FORE during that period you would still be underwater. MOst of the folks here are long term holders of Cisco - not day/or week traders. So, although your points might be valid for day traders it really doens't apply much here. Rather it would make more sense to hold your Cisco (since the decline here is very small) and use the margin side of your account to purchase calls on FORE, ASND, COMS to take advantage of the possible takeover. Selling CSCO here will just cost you more to buy back later....which makes no sense...unless you're suggesting selling your ASND, COMS, FORE position now for a small gain and then getting back into CSCO. Lot's a work for a very marginal gain. Any saavy investor will tell you that's not a good move and not a smart bet to make. Now, let's take a look at future. ASND's future - LU @ $60. Nice gain. As I said a great stock to purchase calls. COMS, Intc picks them up for $35, perhaps a touch more. Probably not worth the chance since the downside is great if they don't get bought. Thier in a commodity based low margin business. Prospects are not good long term for COMS and if not aquired by INTC watch them cut staff. FORE, a good target but a narrowly focused product line and a narrowly focused company. Unable to grow their presence the only way they make it is by getting aquired. LU may pick them up, but again if they don't watch out below. Of your three picks ASND is the only one I'd touch since if an acquisition doesn't happen at least they have a strong product line, good market presence in the carriers, and a desire to do more witnessed by the SRA aquisition. Jach, your comment about Juniper continues to be unsubstantiated and I questioned your statement. You still have not informed as to why Juniper is going to hurt Cisco. I think they indeed will do well, but the only information you've provided is information supplied by Juniper themselves regarding the product. There is no independent data supporting their contention that they have a product 10 times faster than Cisco routers. Furthermore no information that a carrier is moving to Juniper any time soon. Scott Kriens (a great guy) even made mention that getting into carrier nets will be difficult and will take time. However, I respect the man and he will succeed. The question is when and what will Cisco have in return by this time. Cisco isn't just sitting there doing nothing... I suspect they too have a product in the works which will deliver terrabit routing speeds. I believe they have even made mention of this. Jach, we appreciate differening views but you mention your opinions based upon research you have not shared with us. So, it looks like your opinions only. Given the way you have delivered your opinions you have not done much for your credibility. And now, your going to "teach me" about IP-Forwarding. Perhaps you should do a bit of DD on the folks on the thread first... ;) OG