Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28355)	9/19/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ; At the bottom of this is a hot tip. The reasons the social engineers give for recessions and depressions are not altogether false, but they lack the depth, and avoid the root of the problem. They don't just happen by accident some well laid plans to consolidate "power", are at the root. I know from experience as at one time I was a part of creating type of depression. I din't realize at the time my part in it but hind sight is 20/20. Have you ever "cornered a market" to the point of having absolute pricing power over a commodity. I have done that and I now know it's the root of causing depressions. "POWER, ABSOLUTE POWER TO DICTATE WHAT YOU OR ANYONE OTHER THAN MY FRIENDS HAVE TO PAY FOR SOMETHING" man at the time it was a rush. And that's at the heart of an unmitigated free market as it's left up to the biggest player to corner what ever part he's smart enough and big enough to corner. And while I had only a small part of some action a couple of times, it's not hard for me to use that frame of reference and extrapolate from it to see who holds that power in huge huge quantities. Don't kid yourself almost entrepreneur dreams of cornering a market too. ------------------- Now how to apply that to some stocks, well if you read many of my post you would know I'm more a strategist than a TA or FA person. While they are all valid ways of picking stocks each person will have their priorities and the weight they place on each method, and arguments of which is the best way could go on endlessly, as there is no "best way" that applies all the time. I only mention this to hopefully get people to think of the strategic aspect in trading if they have not had it in their system. My primary theme has had to do with the Mo Mo effects created by index funds, and the futures arbitrage they use to stay in step with the index, this goes hand in hand with the way the indexes are weighted. It applies more to very big cap stocks. --------------- But that aside, as I think the psychology of the market is swinging or will swing back to looking for value, and this is subject to cause a move up in small cap stocks in the near future. The P/E levels of small caps are now getting some attention. Strategy wise, one way a BIG cap with a high P/E can make their P/E a little better is to buy smaller caps who already have a good P/E ratio I expect this to kick in more, now this in itself may not show up in the small cap index..such as the R2000 when it first gets clicking..because as soon as these companies are bought they drop out of the index. You will notice this move faster if you watch SOME SMALL CAP MUTUAL FUNDS , who deal in small caps and use them as an index, instead of the SML CAP 600 or R2000..by the time you see spikes in those indexes you will know the herd has caught on is swinging to small caps, and the better deals will already have been snapped up ! --------------------- Now if you are into trying to pick smaller cap companies, and if they are traded on the Nasdaq..find the url that shows you who the Market Makers are <G> put two and two together when you see certain of the same Market Makers show up on dogs/ or runners. Also be very cautious of stocks that only have one or two firms making market for it. This has a little something to do about the power to corner a market, not always but more often than not the more market makers the better deal you will get. -------------------- Now please note my hot tip did not hype any stock, market maker, or particular Fund. Also I'm not recommending you jump into small caps , just that you use a few of the better SML cap Funds Navs as an index to WATCH, and try to catch the move before it shows up in the Sml Cap indexes; This is not CNBC <G> ----------------------- I'll add if I find a beat down stock, and I check it out on SI and all the hangers on seem to have for hope is that it will be bought..then I look else were..once a company gets that bad , damm few big companies will look at it the second time. After all the big boys are out shoping primally to improve their own P/E or Price to sales ratio, the last is important if it adds to them being able to corner more of the market. Jim

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (28355)	9/20/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Ground Zero, A depression versus a recession is more than a matter of semantics. I define a depression as a period having double digit unemployment rate. Here is a link to the World Bank: the IMF. worldbank.org Even though I do not agree with austerity requirements for IMF loans; I do agree with most of the reforms and work, the World Bank promotes and requires. In this crisis period it is imperative that they have adequate funding. Background: worldbank.org Support of Reforms: worldbank.org Skeet